运用线性倾向估计、累积距平、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法对艾比湖流域1960—2006年冷、暖季和全年平均气温、降水量、日照时数的变化趋势、周期性和突变性进行分析。结果表明:①47 a来,艾比湖流域平均气温和降水量均呈增加趋势,其变化率分别为0.43 ℃/10 a、12.02 mm/10 a;而日照时数呈减少趋势,其变化率为-22.30 h/10 a。②从空间分布来看,流域各站年均气温均呈不同程度的增加,其中以托里增幅最大,温泉增幅最小;除托里年降水呈减小趋势外,其他各站年降水量皆表现为增加趋势;冷季日照时数减少趋势明显强于暖季,这也导致研究区大部分站点年日照时数呈减少趋势。③平均气温、降水和日照时数序列在冷季、暖季、全年中都存在着长周期和短周期。其中,降水和日照时数都具有8 a左右的短周期,并分别存在14 a和20 a的长周期;而气温的变化周期较为复杂,且具有较强的波动性,存在11 a和22 a的年代际周期。④流域气候的突变发生在20世纪80年代,1988年流域气温发生了由偏冷时期向偏暖时期的转变;1986年降雨发生了由少雨到多雨的变化,流域气候开始变得湿润;1984年左右日照时数出现由多到少的转变。
The trend, periodicity and abrupt change of cold-warm seasonal and annual mean air temperatures, precipitations and sunshine duration were analyzed in Ebinur Lake Basin with methods of line analyze, annual anomalies, wavelet analyze and Mann-Kendall test during the recent 47 years. The results indicate that: The temperatures and precipitations trend is increased in Ebinur Lake Basin during 47 years, the average trends are 0.43 ℃/10 a and 12.02 mm/10 a; and the sunshine duration trend is decreased with -22.30 h/10 a. In view of the spatial distribution pattern, average annual temperature of the stations in the Ebinur Lake Basin all increases to different extent. The growth of Tuoli is the maximum and that of Wenquan is the minimum. The annual precipitation of Tuoli tends to decrease, while the annual precipitation of the other stations all increases. The decreasing of annual sunshine duration in cold season was stronger than in the warm season, which led to most stations in the study area show trends of decreasing. The time series of temperatures, precipitations and sunshine duration in cold-warm seasonal and annual all have long cycles, which contain some short ones. There are all obvious periodicity of 8 years and the long periodicity of 14 and 20 years respectively for precipitations and sunshine duration; but the time series of mean air temperatures is complex and has cycles around 11 and 22 years. The change years, which happen in the 1980s, of climate factors with methods of annual anomalies and Mann-Kendall test are identical. Along with the precipitations change from drought to rainy, the climate in the Ebinur Lake Basin became wet in 1986. The temperatures change from cold to hot in 1988. The growth of sunshine duration stopped and the total number of sunshine duration began to decrease around 1984.
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