基于1880年以来全国洪灾灾情、耕地面积以及东部地区年降水量数据,采用EMD分解、MK趋势和突变检验与相关分析等方法,探讨19世纪末至21世纪初中国洪涝灾害的变化特征,及其与降水变化和人类活动之间的联系。结果表明:①19世纪末、20世纪50—60年代和20世纪末这3个时间段,是多世纪以来中国洪灾最剧烈的时期;其中19世纪末和20世纪50—60年代的洪灾剧烈期均对应降水丰沛期,而20世纪末的洪灾剧烈期降水并不十分丰沛。②中国洪灾存在多尺度特征,主要周期有2.7 a、5.2 a的年际变化、9.9 a的年代际和20.5 a、51.6 a的几十年际变化等;东部地区年降水量与洪灾变化周期对应关系较好。③从东部近50 a来年降水量变化来看,20世纪八九十年代洪灾上升并不是降水量增加的结果。降水强度增加、极值降水事件增多可能是其重要原因;另一方面则是由于水土流失加剧、湖泊围垦等人类活动因素的影响。此外,水利投资强度的变化对近50 a洪灾变化也有一定影响。
Based on the flood data of China and annual precipitation data of eastern China since 1880, the paper discusses the change characteristics of flood disasters in China, and its relationship with precipitation change and human activities. The adopted methods include Mann-Kendall (MK) test, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and correlation analysis. The results are as follows: 1) the magnification of flood disaster occurred in the late 19th century, the period during 1950s and 1960s, and the late 20th century. The magnification periods of flood disasters in the late 19th century and during 1950s and 1960s corresponded well with the wet periods, while the flood magnification period occurring in the late 20th century did not result from the increase in precipitation amount. 2) Moreover, multi-scale characteristics of flood disaster and precipitation have been detected. The main periods of flood disaster are 2.7-year, 5.2-year, 9.9-year, 20.5-year and 51.6-year, and the periods of precipitation series corresponds well with those of the flood disaster series. 3) The magnification of flood disasters in the 1980s and 1990s did not result from the increase in precipitation amount, while the increment of rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall events play an important role in the process. And the human factors such as aggravation of soil and water loss and lake reclamation are also the driving forces contributing to the increment of flood disaster. Additionally, there is significant negative relationship between flood change and strength of investment in water resources.
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