2011 , Vol. 26 >Issue 9: 1585 - 1591

• 福建师范大学 地理科学学院,福州 350007

修回日期: 2011-05-27

网络出版日期: 2011-09-20

Study on the Percentage of Trend Component in a Hydrological Time Series Based on Mann-Kendall Method

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• School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China

Revised date: 2011-05-27

Online published: 2011-09-20

Abstract

The researches of trend in a hydrological series usually focus on detecting whether the trend characteristic is significant and judging whether the trend characteristic is increasing or decreasing. The paper proposes a concept about the weight of trend component in a hydrological time series which is usually decomposed as trend, period, random component and so on. The calculation formula of the weight of trend component is derived based on Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the difference of dual number p and p0 affects directly the significant level of the trend, and the weight of trend component depends on the value of (p-p0) and the sequence length of series. It also reveals the effects of the sequence length on the weight of trend component for a series with significant trending level. Firstly, it verifies the conclusion that at least 10 samples are necessary to conduct the trend analysis using Mann-Kendall method. Secondly, the weight decreases accordingly with the increase of the sequence length, which also indicates that whether the Mann-Kendall method is applicable for the analysis of trend characteristic should be further studied when the sequence length exceeds a certain range in a hydrological time series. The annual runoff series of Zhuqi Gauging Station in the Minjiang River Watershed from 1936 to 2007, about 72 years, has been taken as an example. The results show that the trend of the series is decreasing, but not significantly. And the weight of the trend component for the runoff series is 24.73%, which is nearly 1/4.

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