渔业资源的变动是一个随机过程,它既有确定性趋势,又有随机波动的特性。论文把灰色系统方法和时序分析相结合,用灰色GM(1,1)模型提取渔业资源变动中的确定性趋势,用时序模型描写它的随机波动,从而建立渔业资源动态的灰色时序模型。考虑到渔业资源的变化受到捕捞强度的影响,同时建立渔获量和单位捕捞努力量的渔获量(CPUE)关于捕捞努力量的二元时序模型。利用灰色时序模型和多元时序模型,对舟山渔场渔业资源的动态变化进行分析和预测,结果表明灰色时序模型和多元时序模型能很好地拟合渔业资源的变动过程,精确地预测渔业资源未来的状况。
The variation of fisheries resources is a random process. They vary with not only inherent tendency, but also random fluctuation. Combining grey system theory with time series analysis, the grey time series models were built. The varying tendency of fisheries resources was pick-up by GM(1,1), then the random fluctuation was characterized by time series models. In order to eliminate the effect of fishing effort on the variation of fisheries resources, the multivariable time series models were built relating catch to fishing effort and catch per unit effort (CPUE) to fishing effort. Using the grey time series models and multivariable time series models the dynamic analysis and prediction of the fisheries resources in Zhoushan Fishing Ground were made. It was showed that the grey time series models and multivariable time series models can accurately fit the varying process and predict the coming state of fisheries resources.
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