论文在系统分析我国畜禽养殖方式及其影响因素的基础上,对畜禽养殖方式变化的动力机制和演变过程的阶段性进行了研究;利用构建的逻辑斯蒂函数,对主产区生猪和蛋、肉鸡养殖方式变化进行了定量化模拟。研究结果显示:①畜禽养殖方式的变化一般经历初期低速转变阶段、中期快速转变阶段、后期慢速转变阶段和全面规模化阶段;②目前我国绝大部分生猪主产省的养殖方式仍处于中期快速转变阶段,后期提升幅度最大,而蛋肉鸡和蛋鸡一直处于后期慢速转变阶段,规模养殖业相对发达,但提升幅度偏小;③畜禽养殖方式的快速变化是我国近10 a多来大豆需求快速增加的主要原因;④今后10 a内,我国中西部地区生猪养殖的规模化程度不断提高,同时,各地区的生猪及蛋肉鸡出栏量也将继续增加,因此,在我国大豆生产能力有限的情况下,大豆供求缺口仍将不断扩大。

The output of China's meat and eggs for many years ranked first in the world, and livestock husbandry has become a significant industry in China. The pattern of the livestock farming in China has changed from free-range farms to scale farms, which has influenced a lot in the demand of the industrial feedstuff and soybean meal. Based on the systematic analysis of farming patterns and their influencing factors, this paper studied the dynamic mechanism and stage evolution process of livestock farming patterns in China; and also made the quantitative simulation of the hog, egg and broiler in the main production areas according to construction of the Logistic Function. The results showed the followings: 1) The changes of farming patterns generally experienced low-speed transformation in the early stage, rapid transformation in the medium-term stage, slow developing process in the later period and the stage of the total intensive farming. 2) The suburban areas with rapid economic development cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have almost accomplished the transformation process, and the developing trend in these areas will be highly efficient, pollution-free and sustainable in the future; the areas such as Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning own good agriculture resource conditions, and the suburban areas of the relatively high level of economic development provinces such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Henan, are at the stage of rapid-speed transformation; however, most regions in the Central and Western China are in the early stage of the evolution process and the transformation speed is relatively slow. 3) On the whole, hog farming patterns went through the transition from the stage of low-speed transformation to medium-term stage of rapid transformation, and at present, farming patterns are still in the medium-term stage of rapid transformation in most of the major hog producing provinces, so the farming level is relatively low during the period, but the room for the growth will be much bigger in the future. However, the broilers and layers both are in the late stage of slow transformation, and the intensive farming industry is relatively developed but it's difficult to promote more. 4) The main reason that soybean demand rapidly increases in the past ten years is the change of livestock farming patterns. The scale of live hog farming in Central and Western China will constantly increase in the next decade. Meanwhile, the slaughter of live hog, broilers and layers will continue to rise in most regions. So the gap between soybean supply and demand will continually expand with the limited production capacity of domestic soybean.