利用华东446个气象站点1961—2007年日平均气温资料和RegCM3模式预估的2010—2039年日平均气温资料,分别以10 ℃和22 ℃作为取暖和降温度日的基础温度,采用度日法分析了气温变化对华东居住建筑取暖和降温耗能的影响。结果表明,1961—2007年间,整个华东取暖度日、取暖和降温总度日基本都呈减少趋势,且北部减少多于南部;降温度日在华东多数地区都呈增加趋势,以长江三角洲、浙江东部和福建东部沿海增加较多。2010—2039年间,整个华东取暖度日都将继续减少,且北部减少多于东南部;降温度日都将继续增加,且南部增加多于北部和沿海;取暖和降温总度日在华东北部呈减少趋势,而在南部呈增加趋势。过去47 a间,华东取暖度日的减少远超过降温度日的增加,气温变化总体上有利于居住建筑耗能的减少。未来30 a间,华东取暖和降温度日的变化幅度接近,气温变化对居住建筑耗能的正负影响基本相抵消。
Based on the mean daily temperature data from 446 meteorological stations during 1961-2007 and those from RegCM3 model during 2010-2039, the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling energy consumption of residential buildings in East China were studied by the method of degree-days with 10 ℃ and 22 ℃ as the baseline temperature of heating degree-days and cooling degree-days. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2007, heating degree-days and the sum of heating degree-days and cooling degree-days decreased basically in the whole East China, with more decrease in the northern part and less decrease in the southern part of East China, and cooling degree-days increased in most part of East China, with more increase in the Yangtze Delta region, the eastern part of Zhejiang and the coastal areas of Fujian. During the period from 2010 to 2039, heating degree-days will decrease continuously in the whole East China, with more decrease in the northern part and less decrease in the southeastern part of East China, and cooling degree-days will increase continuously in the whole East China, with more increase in the southern part and less increase in the northern part and coastal areas. The sum of heating degree-days and cooling degree-days will decrease in the northern part and increase in the southern part of East China during 2010-2039. In the past 47 years, the decrease of heating degree-days was much more than the increase of cooling degree-days in East China, so temperature change on the whole was favorable to the decrease of energy consumption of residential buildings. In the future 30 years, the decrease of heating degree-days was close to the increase of cooling degree-days in East China, so the impact of temperature change on energy consumption of residential buildings will be little.
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