为了研究江苏省农用地粮食生产的时空变化及其影响因素,论文分析了2000年和2006年江苏省农用地粮食单产和总产的空间格局及其变化情况,同时,分析了人为影响因素和气象因素对江苏省农用地粮食单产的影响。结果表明:江苏省农用地粮食单产空间分布差异表现为由南往北不断减少的格局,这个格局2006年与2000年相比没有发生改变,但是,随着近年表现出苏北和苏中粮食单产增加大于苏南的趋势,苏南地区的粮食单产优势在渐渐消失,苏中地区成为江苏省粮食单产的另一个高值区,局部地区接近苏南的单产水平。2000年粮食总产分布表现为高值区多中心的格局,高值区主要分布在苏中和苏北地区,但到2006年后粮食总产高值区在苏北和苏中连片,其他地方的高值区消失。从论文分析结果来看,人为影响因素和降水变化是江苏省近年农用地粮食生产空间格局变化的主要影响因素。粮食生产格局的时空变化需要引起有关部门的注意,其结论可以为相关部门提供决策参考。

In order to study the temporal and spatial variation of grain production of agricultural land in Jiangsu Province and its influencing factors, this article researches the spatial patterns of grain yield and the total output of agricultural land in 2000 and 2006 in Jiangsu Province and their changes between the two years, and analyses the impact of human factors and meteorological factors on grain yield of agricultural land by statistical method and special analysis of GIS. The result shows that the difference in spatial distribution of grain yield of agricultural land presents the pattern of constant from south to north in Jiangsu Province. This pattern has remained unchanged between these two years, however, as demonstrated in recent years, the grain yield of agricultural land has increased in northern and central parts more than that in the southern part of Jiangsu Province, and grain yield advantage in the southern part has gradually disappeared. The central part becomes another high-value area of grain yield in Jiangsu Province, and in some localities it is close to the level of grain yield in southern Jiangsu. Lianyungang City witnessed the greatest increase of grain yield. The increase rate of grain yield in 2006 is between 1286 and 1797 kg/hm² compared with that in 2000 . Nanjing and Zhenjiang experienced the greatest reduction of grain yield, with the rate reaching 254-612 kg/hm². The distribution of total grain output in 2000 shows a pattern of multi-center of the high value area, which is mainly distributed in the northern and central parts, but after 2006, the high value area of total grain output in the northern and central parts became a continuous area. Meanwhile, all other high-value area of total grain output disappeared. The pattern of total grain output in recent years shows that it is reducing in southern Jiangsu while increasing in northern and central Jiangsu. The greatest increase is in northern Jiangsu and the greatest reduction is in the southern. Human influencing factors and precipitation change are the main influencing factors of the change in spatial pattern of the grain yield in Jiangsu in recent years. The relevant departments need to pay attention to the variation of the spatial and temporal patterns of grain production, and this research can provide a basis for decision-making.