水资源承载力研究是保证水资源可持续利用,寻求区域可持续发展的重要依据。论文以北京市通州区为例,根据研究区特点,建立了水资源承载力评价指标体系,对各评价指标的可承载极限临界值进行了界定;利用GIS技术的网格剖分法建立了研究区水资源承载力指标数据库;提出了基于GIS技术和模糊综合评判模型的区域水资源承载力综合评价模型,建立了水资源承载力评价数据库,实现区域内水资源承载力的空间差异分析。结果表明,通州区内部水资源承载力与区域发展水平的差异一致,由城区到远郊,水资源承载力呈逐渐减弱趋势,伴随城区不断发展,影响范围的扩大,预测通州区到2020年水资源承载力整体处于一个较高水平。

As a principal index of water resources security,the measurement of water resources carrying Capacity is an important guidance to the sustainable regional development.Taking Tongzhou District as an example,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity based on qualitative analysis,and confirms the marginal values of each index in the critical situations.In addition,grid anatomy method of GIS was applied to construct a dataset about the index system to get objective and correct appraisal of water resources carrying capacity.Water resources carrying capacity dynamic tendency within the region was also studied by overload function of GIS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.The results show the water resources carrying capacity decreases rapidly with the increase of distance from the downtown to the rural areas.Moreover,it can be predicted that the water resources carrying capacity will be high on the whole in 2020.