根据已有的分布式水文循环模型及水文监测资料统计分析得出,玛纳斯河流域绿洲引用水对2000m以上的山地暂无影响,但人工绿洲却在平原区水资源再生循环竞争中居于优势地位,人工补给已占总补给量的73.5%,人工开采已占总排泄量的41.78%,平原区水循环发生了以人工水循环为主导的二元分化。人工绿洲、天然绿洲、过渡带和荒漠间生态统一性出现无序化趋势,人工绿洲水分垂向循环加强,蒸发下渗量加大,而天然绿洲及过渡带水平方向径流通量减少,可利用生态水量大幅减少,造成绿洲-荒漠生态呈现出对抗趋势。

The Manas river valley has an integrated and independent hydrogeologic unit,topog-raphic composition,and ecologic differentiated structure,which form the typical movement rule and conversion law of water resources and water cycle in the interior drainage basins.The intensive and high-efficient exploitation of water resources has changed the course of water cycle and unity of ecologic service functions from the cycle course and cycle peculiarity,hence leading to the two dimensional division of oasis water resource,and hydrologic cycle.The growth and decline from the natural cycle to the human one change the time-space distribution and transformation conditions of water resources between the natural oasis,human oasis and the transitional zone.According to the existing distributive hydrologic cycle model and hydrologic monitoring statistical data,oasis used water resources didn't affect the mountain area over 2 000 m,but the man-made oasis has acquired the competitive advantage in the cycle of regeneration of water resources in the plain area.Based on extensive statistic data analysis,man-made water supply has occupied 73.5% of the total volume supplied,and man-made exploitation amount has occupied 41.78% of the total output.Hence the plain area hydrologic cycle has brought about two dimensional division dominated by the man-made hydrologic cycle.The ecologic entity between the man-made oasis,natural oasis and the transitional belt,and desert belt has taken on a no-sequence trend.The vertical hydrologic cycle of man-made oasis has been enhanced and evaporation and infiltration intensified.At the same time the horizontal discharge of natural oasis and the transitional belt has decreased and the available eco-water lessened.This change has resulted in an antagonistic tendency between oasis-desert ecosystem.Such a study can provide the scientific basis for the reasonable allocation and sustainable utilization of water resources in arid region.