水资源是民勤盆地社会经济发展最主要的限制因子,水资源承载力研究对民勤盆地实现可持续发展具有重要意义。论文采用定性和定量相结合的方法,从水资源承载力的定义、内涵、影响因素出发,结合民勤盆地的生态环境特点、社会经济发展状况,构建了由对象层指标和影响层指标组成、能够对水资源承载力进行测度和评价的指标体系。依据各指标的含义,利用可得数据初步估算、预测了民勤盆地2001、2010和2020年的水资源承载力,并对计算结果进行了简要评价。

Water resource is the most important limiting factor to the social-economic development of Minqin Basin.Research into the water resources carrying capacity is significant to the sustainable development of the Basin.In this paper,we adopt both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to discuss the definition,connotation and affecting factors of water resources carrying capacity,and,combined with the status of the environment,society and economy in Minqin Basin,set up the index system which can be used to measure and evaluate water resources carrying capacity.According to the index system and using the acquirable data,we predict the water resources carrying capacity of the Minqin Basin in 2001,2010 and 2020.