根据曲周县统计资料和水利观测资料,分析了近30年来土地投入变化及其对粮食作物单产变化的贡献率,并对区域水资源平衡变化的情况进行了计算和分析。研究结果表明,作为集约化农区的曲周,30年来土地利用集约化程度不断提高,表现为土地的复种指数、化肥投入和灌溉率不断提高;播种作物面积单产的生产函数模拟表明,灌溉保障率的提高对作物播种面积单产的贡献率最大,达到了0.546;作物播种面积单产提高对水资源的高度依赖性,导致了对水资源的过度开采,使区域水资源失衡。这种趋势持续下去,将对区域的资源持续利用产生不利影响。要促进集约化农区水土资源的可持续利用,只有降低复种指数,减少耗水作物,特别是小麦的播种面积。

s: In many developing countries, water resource is one of the major limiting factors to development.A reliable supply of sufficient good quality water is required for human consu mption,industry and irrigation.So a region's sustainable development is dependent largely on water resources,it is especially so in intensive agricultural region.Therefore,the effects of land use change on the region's water resource are of particular interest. In the last 50 odd years,Quzhou county has experienced great changes in land use,and the area of crops has increased substantially,leading to marked consumption of water resources. This paper studies the relationship between land use and water resource by taking Quzhou as a case. Based on the data from the statistics bureau and irrigation data on Quzhou county,we analyzed the land input change and its contribution to the per unit area crop yield and the balance of water resources.The result showed that the multiple cropping index,fertilizer input and the rate of irrigation had been improved.The simulated production function of crop showed that the guarantee rate of irrigation contributed the most to the crop yield,which was up to 0.546.The high dependency on irrigation led to the over exploitation of the water resources and the subsequent unbalance of the water resources.If this tendency continues,adverse effects on regional sustainable water use will be exerted.Such measures as reducing multiple cropping index,and reducing the wheat area should be taken to improve the sustainability of water resources.