为了评估南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游水华的影响,根据汉江水华发生的成因和关键因子的分析结果,对汉江水华发生的概率进行了定性分析;应用水动力学模型和富营养化动力学模型以及随机模拟法对汉江水华发生的概率进行了定量计算,并提出了相应的防治对策。结果表明熏南水北调中线工程145×108m3方案实施后将增加汉江水华发生的概率,而引江济汉工程的兴建将极大地减少汉江水华发生的概率。汉江自身的水污染治理是减少水华发生概率的最根本措施。丹江口水库增加枯水期下泄流量和三峡电站减少枯水期下泄流量的联合调度将减小汉江水华发生的概率。

In order to evaluate the effects of the middle route of China's south-to-north water transfer project (MR-SNWTP) on water bloom in the middle-down stream of Hanjiang River, according to the analytical results about the reasons and key factors for Hanjiang's water bloom,the probability of Hanjiang's water bloom are analyzed qualitatively.The probability of Hanji-ang's water bloom are calculated quantitatively by applying hydrodynamic model and dynamic model of eutrophication as well as stochastic analogy method,and the corresponding prevention countermeasures are provided.The results indicate that the probability of water bloom in Hanji-ang River will increase when the 145×108m3 scheme of MR-SNWTP is implemented,but building the diversion work from Yangtze River to Hanjiang River will markedly decrease the probability of water bloom in Hanjiang River.The water pollution control of Hanjiang River itself is the most fundamental measure to reduce the probability of Hanjiang's water bloom.The joint regulation of increasing discharge from Danjiangkou Reservoir and decreasing discharge from Sanxia Power Station during drought period will reduce the probability of Hanjiang's water bloom.