论文分析了秦岭北麓8县的近41年的气候变化规律,发现该地区气候变化趋势与全国和全球相似,向暖干化方向发展。采用近41年气候特征值对苹果适宜性进行评价,发现该地区并不是苹果生长的适宜区。夏季高温、较高的相对湿度和较短的日照时数是苹果生长的不利因素。结合目前的气候变化趋势,推论出该地区苹果的病虫害将会加重,苹果质量将进一步下降。地区果业发展中,减少苹果栽种面积和优化果品生产结构仍然具有一定潜力。

All countries in the world are paying more and more attention to global change.Glo-bal change has regional diversities.In order to find out it's regional characteristics,statistical,regressive and trend analysis are used in this paper.Based on climate data on the northern pediment plain of Qinling Mountains from1959to1999,the study indicated that climate in the region become warmer and dryer during the last41years.Sunshine hours have been decreasing due to air pollution.Climate evaluation for apple plantation indicates that climate becomes unsuitable for apple growth in this area.High temperature in summer,higher relative humidity and the shorter sunshine hours will affect apple growth,resulting in further decline of apple quality and the aggravation of apple diseases and insect pests.Therefore the other types of fruits such as grapes,peaches and persimmons can be developed and the acreage of apple can be reduced.