论文首先指出并不存在联合国粮农组织提出的人均耕地面积阈值;继而认为人均耕地面积阈值具有鲜明的时间和空间特征,需要有明确的前提条件。为此按1995年的耕地实际生产力(在耕地面积中扣除菜地和经济作物用地面积),以人均400kg、450kg、500kg粮食需求量的生活标准,提出就全国平均而言,人均耕地面积不应小于0.092hm₂、0.104hm₂、0.115hm₂(可以看作当前的人均耕地面积阈值)。根据2010、2030、2050年我国的预期耕地面积以及可能达到的生产能力,按人均400kg、450kg、500kg粮食需求量的生活标准,就全国平均而言,2010年人均耕地面积不应小于0.059hm₂、0.067hm₂、0.074hm₂(可以看作近期的人均耕地面积阈值);2030年人均耕地面积不应小于0.052hm₂、0.058hm₂、0.064hm₂(可以作为中期的人均耕地面积阈值);2050年人均耕地面积不应小于0.046hm₂、0.052hm₂、0.058hm₂(可以作为远期的人均耕地面积阈值)。

This paper firstly points out that the threshold area of per capita arable land in China identified by FAO does not exist in fact;then advances that the threshold area of per capita arable land,which needs specific premise,has its distinct spatio-temporal characteristics.There-fore,according to the actual productivity of1995in China,the corresponding threshold areas of per capita arable land under different food demanding level in China are obtained:0.092ha for400kg per capita,0.104ha450kg per capita,and0.115ha500kg per capita(the current thresh-old area of per capita arable land in china).And based on the forecasted arable land area and productivity,threshold area of per capita arable land in2010,2030and2050are also calculat-ed:0.059ha,0.067ha,0.074ha in2010(the threshold area of the near future per capita arable land in China);0.052ha,0.058ha,0.064ha in2030(the threshold area of the medium-term per capita arable land in China);0.046ha,0.052ha,0.058ha in2050(the threshold area of long-term per capita arable land in China).