耕地总量动态平衡战略的终极目的是保障粮食安全,使得存量耕地的产出能力总量及其人均水平只能增加不能下降。由于耕地占补质量差异的存在,在监测耕地系统数量增减的同时,应警戒其质量升降超过临界值的时空范围和危险程度,才能全面反映耕地系统的状态。耕地质量的监测必须与各等级耕地面积的动态变化监测结合起来。耕地分等定级、耕地质量动态变化和耕地总量动态平衡监测体系的研究应有统一的指标体系和技术方案,才能解决耕地占补质量平衡中“占一补几”的操作难题。论文在耕地占补的定位监测和基于耕地基础地力指数的耕地地力等级划分基础上,对耕地总量动态平衡进行了预警分析。

The strategic ultimate aim of the dynamic balance maintenance of total farmland is to ensure the safety of food supplies and to make the output capacity of reserved farmland and the per capita output level increase.Because of the difference in occupied and supplement ed farmland quality,while the system quantity of farmland is monitored,we should warn the spatial-temporal range and dangerous degree of the quality degradation critical value.Therefore we can reflect the state of farmland system on the whole.The monitoring of farmland quality should be inte grated with the dynamic change of farmland area of all grades.The researches on the grading and ranks of farmland,the dynamic change of farmland quality and the monitoring system of dy-namic balance maintenance of total farmland should have unified index system and technological project,so we can solve the operational problem of"occupying one but supplying some "in ba-lancing occupation and supplementation of farmland quality.On the basis of the fixed-site moni-toring of occupied and supplemented farmland and farmland productivity grade based on the in-dex of farmland productivity,we have carried out the critical alertness and early warning of dy-namic balance maintenance of the total farmland,regarded that actualizing the strategy of dy-namic balance maintenance of the total farmland should be combined with the construction of farmland quality,the protection of basic farmland,technical advancement and population control-ling.