论文利用长江三角洲地区近50年长序列耕地统计、近10多年土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,重点从长江三角洲耕地数量变化的阶段性及与经济发展水平之间关系宏观分析的角度,探讨该区未来10～15年耕地变化趋势及实施区域耕地总量动态平衡的可能性。分析表明,长江三角洲耕地面积随人均GDP的增长呈良好的指数减少关系,人均GDP低于12000元/人,经济增长占用耕地的压力较大;人均GDP超过30000元/人时,这种压力将开始显著减缓。现阶段长江三角洲仍处于经济发展对耕地的压力较大的发展阶段,但已较1995年前明显减轻,估计至2004年前后,该区经济增长对耕地的压力将开始得到缓解。按现有的土地复垦整理补充耕地的投资力度,至2010年耕地面积仍将比1998年减少5.5×104hm₂左右,若加大复垦整理的投资力度至现状水平的2倍,则保持耕地数量不减少也是可能实现的。

Applying long-term statistic al data of cropland area,land use survey and relative so-cio-economic statistics of the Yangtze River Delta,this paper focuses on the tendency of crop-land area change and the probability of maintaining dynamic balance of its amount in the Yangtze River Delta from the point of view of the phases of cropland area change and their rela-tionships with the level of regional economic development.The analysis reveals that there are re-markable exponential correlations between the decrease in cropland area and increase in per capita gross domestic product(GDP)in the Yangtze River Delta.While per capita GDP is below12000RMB yuan,the economic growth has a great pressure on cropland area;while per capita GDP exceeds30000RMB yuan,the pressure of economic growth on cropland will gradually mitigated.At present,the Yangtze River Delta is experiencing the period of the rapid decrease in cropland area caused by the economic development,although the decrease rate is obviously be-low that of before1995.It is estimated that the pressure of economic development on cropland area will gradually mitigate after the year2004.From1998to2010,the cropland area will re-duce by5.5×10 4 ha according to the current investment intensity of land exploitation,it is possi-ble to maintain dynamic balance of cropland area in the Yangtze River Delta if the investment intensity of land exploitation cccould be doubled compared to the current investment level.