实现国家粮食安全的最基本条件是保证粮食基本自给,而耕地资源是粮食自给能力的基础。21世纪中国人口将继续增长,人均粮食消费水平将有所提高,粮食需求压力日益增大;工业化、城市化进程加快和经济高速发展将使原本稀缺的耕地资源不可逆转地部分流向非农化利用,人地矛盾将更趋尖锐。论文分析了耕地数量变化及质量状况与粮食生产的相关关系,结论表明,中国21世纪粮食安全战略中必须高度重视耕地的数量保持和质量改善。

National food security is based upon grain self sufficiency in general.Cultivated land resource is an important base influencing the available grain self sufficient capability.In China,the pressure of grain demand becomes greater and greater in the 21st century owing to the continuous population growth and income increase.Conflict between population and land will become more acute because scarce cultivated land will be partly transformed irreversibly into non agricultural uses in the process of the speedy industrialization and urbanization and economic development.Through analyzing the impacts of quantity change and quality status of cultivated land on grain production,the authors identify the relationship between cultivated land change and food security in China.This research tends to offer a basis for China to set down food security strategy in the 21st century.