本文在三峡工程对长江湖口站水位影响预测的基础上,通过建立湖口站与鄱阳湖各湖区水位代表站的相关关系,研究三峡工程对鄱阳湖水位的影响。结果表明,三峡工程对鄱阳湖水位的影响程度有自下游向上游方向逐渐减小的特点；枯水期影响程度大于丰水期。三峡水库丰水期作减泄流量调度,即当减少下泄流量１０００～６０００ｍ^３／ｓ时,鄱阳湖水位将下降０．０６～０．８２ｍ；枯水期作增泄流量调度,即当增加下泄流量１０００～６０００ｍ^３／ｓ时,鄱阳湖水位将上升０．０４～０．９７ｍ。尤其是枯水期的１２月至翌年１月,三峡水库若减少下泄流量２０００ｍ^３／ｓ、４０００ｍ^３／ｓ、６０００ｍ^３／ｓ,鄱阳湖将分别有１００ｋｍ^２、２４６ｋｍ^２和４８４ｋｍ^２的滩地被淹没,缩小湖区珍稀候鸟栖息、觅食等的活动范围,对候鸟越冬产生不利影响。

On the basis of the prediction of the impact of the Three Gorges Project on the water level at the Hukou hydrologic station of the Changjiang river, this paper studies the impact of the Three Gorges Project on the water level of Poyang lake through setting up the water level correlation between the Hukou hydrologic station and the Poyang lake hydrologic stations which represent different parts of the lake.