本文讨论了中国粮食生产发展面临的４种严峻困难与挑战。按照中国基本国情及世界市场粮食资源状况，中国必须走粮食基本自给的道路。利用投入占用产出技术及系统科学方法，对２０３０年中国的粮食产量、粮食进口量及自给率进行了预测。

This paper discusses four stern difficulties and challenges faced by the development of grain production in China. According to the basic national conditions of China and the amount of grain resource in the world market, China must meet the grain demands mainly by her own domestic production. Using the input-occupancy-output techniques and system science methods, this paper makes a forecast about China's grain output, grain import and self-support rate in the year 2030.