长兴岛是上海近郊尚待开发的长江河口沙岛。本文在对该岛水资源状况和水环境质量系统调查和评价的基础上,建立了长兴岛复合生态系统的系统动力学模型,预测了1992—2000年的水环境质量和水资源供需趋势,并作了增加环保投资的政策试验。研究提出:长兴岛的开发应以环境保护为前提;结合邻近浦东新区的建设,将长兴岛开辟为上海和浦东新区的远景水源岛,建成高品质无污染农副产品的生产和加工基地及上海的东部旅游区。

Changxinng Island, is an estuary sand island of the Yangtze River, is located in the suburb of Shanghai. It will play a very important role in the economic development of Shanghai metropolis and New Pudong Area. The systematic survey and analysis of the water resource and water environment show that abundant amount and high quality of water lay a sound foundation for the development of the island. The trend of water quality and water resource from 1992 to 2000 is forecasted by a systematic dynamics model, which consists of 9 blocks of important factors such as economics, environment, population, etc. Study points out that the exploitation of Changxing Island should rely on the environmental protection principle and an overall developmental plan of Pudong and Shanghai city. Changxing Island should be exploited as a new drinking water source island of Shanghai, a convalescent and tourist center in eastern Shanghai, as well as a base to produce and process the high-quality and no-polluted farmland sideline products.