本文从土地现实生产力分析和作物潜在生产力估算入手,借助IBM-PC计算机,通过土地资源生产力评价的 MFICA 模式和土地资源优化利用模型的建立,初步框算了定西县1990年、2000年,2025年以及2050年之后的区域农业生产力及其土地资源承载力,进尔阐释了该县土地资源承载力的演变及其土地-粮食-人口关系的可能发展趋势。为区域土地资源承载力研究提供了一条切实可行的途径。

In this paper, after analysing the current land productivity and estimating the potential crop productivity, an evalution model of land resource productivity-Model of Fuzzy ISODATA Claster Analysis (MFICA) and an optimization model of land resource utilization-Model of Linear Programming (MLP) are set up in the IBM-PC computer. Then, on the basis of above, the regional agricultural productivity and the land resource carrying capacity in Dingxi county for the years 1990, 2000, 2025 and after 2025 are given. At last, the development of land resource carrying capacity and the future trend of land-food-population relationship in Dingxi county are explained.It provides a workable way for the study of regional land resource carrying capacity.