首次定义和使用了"GDP黄金当量"作为经济全球化背景下经济增长的新指标。"GDP黄金当量"是指把历年GDP总量按年均汇价和国际黄金市场年均价换算成黄金重量,其可在一定程度上绕开纸币的贬值或升值,反映GDP的贵金属本质,把资源消耗和经济增长的关系分析转变成物物关系分析。研究资源消耗和经济增长的关系有助于提高资源使用效率和调整经济发展方式。通过分析西南地区1949年以来历年商品材产量、人口数量、GDP总量、GDP黄金当量及其单位木材能耗之间的关系,检验了近现代资源环境与经济发展关系中的"资源诅咒"和"库兹涅茨曲线"假设,结果表明:①1952—2008年GDP总量增长了422倍,人口增长了1倍,GDP黄金当量增加了4.5倍,商品材产量增加了12倍;②商品材产量1997—2000年因天然林保护工程下降了80%,然而2008年的946×104 m3又恢复到了天然林保护工程前的水平,总体上增长趋势未变;③经济发展出现3个GDP黄金当量"平台",目前处在第3个"平台"上,GDP黄金当量和商品材产量仅前20 a成线性相关(P<0.01);④商品材产量和人口数量之间线性相关显著(P<0.01),GDP黄金当量和人口数量之间非参数相关显著(P=0.005),人均GDP增长了162倍,人均GDP黄金当量只增长了1.5倍,商品材产量和人均GDP(或人均GDP黄金当量)之间不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线关系,也不存在森林资源诅咒经济增长现象;⑤每万元GDP或每kg GDP黄金当量的商品材消耗量先增加后减少,呈现倒"U"曲线走势,经济发展走过了劳动和森林资源密集型时期。
The first time we defined the term of Gold Purchased by GDP (GPG) and regarded it as a new indicator of economic growth. GPG means the gold weight purchased by GDP according to the annual average exchange price and the annual average international gold price. Exploring the relationship between natural resource consumption and economic growth will contribute to improve the efficiency of resource utilization. This paper analyzed the data of commercial timber harvested, population, GDP and GPG of Southwest China since 1949, tested the hypothesis of Resource Curse and Kuznets Curve, the results showed: 1) with the increasing of GDP by 422 times from 1952 to 2008, the population, GPG and commercial timber harvested grew by one times, 4.5 times and 12 times respectively; 2) the commercial timber decreased by 80% resulted from the Natural Forests Protected Program from 1997 to 2000, but the figure of 9.5 million m3 in 2008 reached the level of 1997 and its increasing trend has not been changed since 1949; 3) the economic development experienced three GPG platforms and it stood at the third one currently. The linear correlation between GPG and timber consumption in the first 20 years was significant (P<0.01); 4) the per capita GPG increased by 1.5 times with the per capita GDP growing by 162 times. The linear correlation between commercial timber consumption and population was significant (P<0.01). The nonparametric correlation between GPG and population was true (P=0.005). The Resource Curse and Kuznets Curve did not exist between timber consumption and per capita GDP or per capita GPG; and 5) the commercial timber consumption per 10 thousand yuan or per kilogram GPG appeared inversed U-shaped curve, and the economic growth went through the period which has promoted by intensive labor and timber consumption.
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