论文在综合考虑系统属性、风险过程后,基于致险、承险因子及损害程度构建了水资源系统风险的评价指标体系及模型。该指标体系由4层次共20个指标构成,能更好地表征风险的产生和构成。评价模型包括参数计算与风险分级,能简便计算风险参数及因子贡献率并进行相应的风险级别划分。随后运用上述指标体系及模型,评价了北京市面临的水资源系统风险,结果表明主要致险因子是缺水率(0.426 1),主要的承险因子是水资源保障程度(0.647 6);若单考虑致险情况下的风险,北京市面临57.13%的致险率,在综合考虑水资源承险能力后得到风险为26.97%,显示北京市能较好应对水资源系统风险,但仍受约束性风险限制,可通过开源节流、调整产业结构及规范水资源管理来应对。
There are lots of factors influencing the water resources system, making it difficult to calculate water resources system risk accurately with a single index. In this paper, on the basis of discussing the risk transfer process and the risk factors from environment, economy and society, the index system for assessment of water resource system risk which consisted of 20 practical indexes in total from four characteristics was established. A model was established on the basis of the index system to assess the water resource system risk, system counterforce ability and risk damage. Parameter calculation of risk and the risk classification is easy to implement with the model. The water resource system risk in Beijing was evaluated with the index system and the model in this paper. The results show that the water risk index is 26.97%, lower than the risk-causing rate which is 57.13%, the difference that does demonstrate the importance of the water system counterforce ability is caused by the water resource system counterforce ability. The main risk-causing factor and system counterforce ability factor are the rate of water shortage and the water guarantee rate, being 0.4261 and 0.6476 respectively. The risk results show that Beijing falls in the second category, to guard against the risk, restrictions on the use of water resources and management of water environment should be taken into effect.
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