利用环境负荷模型与"脱钩"理论,对江苏未来中长期的经济发展、能源需求与CO2排放进行了情景分析,并结合当前的环境政策,对三种情景下主要指标的参数和结果进行了设计与分析。研究表明,资源节约型与环境友好型社会的构建,低碳情景是江苏能源-经济-社会的协调发展最合适、也是最现实的方案;通过不同情景的比较,认为低碳情景的实现一定程度上是以减缓经济增长来实现节能减排目标的;低碳情景下能源需求与CO2排放也将明显快速增加,与2007年相比,2030年能源需求总量将增加1.431倍,碳排放总量将达到15 655×104 t,未来20 a能源资源的有效供应与合理利用成为制约低碳经济发展的瓶颈因素。最后给出了实现节能减排、促进低碳经济发展的相关建议。
Mid- and long-term economic growth, energy demand and carbon emissions scenarios in Jiangsu were analyzed using the IPAT model. The main parameters and results for three scenarios are introduced, according to the current energy usage situation and environmental policy. Research results show that low carbon scenario was the most appropriate and realistic way to build the energy saving and environment-friendly society; the targets of energy-saving and carbon reduction will be reached at the expense of the economic growth; with the rapid development of economy in the future, energy demand and carbon emissions will also increase quickly; compared with 2007, energy demand may increase by 1.431 times in 2030, and the carbon emissions may increase to 156.55 million tons; and energy supply and rational utilization will be the bottleneck factors in the future 20 years. Then, several suggestions are put forward in order to deal with the pressure on the reduction of carbon emissions.
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