为揭示河北省粮食产量空间格局分布特征,因地制宜地制定区域粮食安全生产政策,论文运用ESDA空间相关分析理论结合GIS技术,分析了1986—2006年河北省138个县的粮食产量空间差异变化规律、特征和成因,并提出相应的粮食安全生产政策与措施。研究结果表明:研究期内省域范围内粮食产量Moran’s I指数的平均值为0.346,存在较强的空间聚集格局;粮食产量局部空间集聚显著区主要分布在唐山—石家庄山前平原区高产区(HH)和张家口—承德坝上高原低产区(LL),1986年、1996年、2006年落入HH和LL象限的县分别占总样本数的55.07%、66.67%和71.74%,粮食产量空间集聚效果显著;20 a内粮食产量重心由北向西南方向转移42.7 km;粮食产量的主要影响因素为有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力、粮食播种面积等。
In order to reveal the spatial distribution pattern of food production in Hebei Province, and formulate regional development of food safety policy suitable to local conditions, this paper using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) combined with GIS spatial analytical technology and structured spatial adjacent matrix, analyzed spatio-temporal changes and regulations in grain production of 138 counties in Hebei Province of China from 1986 to 2006. Research showed that grain production presented aggregated global spatial patterns at provincial level with an average Moran’s I index of 0.346. Grain yield shows significant local spatial clustering pattern, distributing mainly in the Tangshan-Shijiazhuang piedmont high-yield area (HH) and the Zhangjiakou-Bashang Plateau and Chengde low-producing areas (LL). Counties fell into the quadrant of the HH and LL accounted for 55.07%, 66.67% and 71.74% of the total sample size in 1986, 1996 and 2006, respectively. Grain production has a strong spatial correlation, a significant pattern of local clustering, and aggregation in the study phase, as well as continuous enhancement in the local context in Hebei Province; but it also reflects the spatial heterogeneity in distribution of grain yield, showing the local distribution pattern of discrete and the weakening degree of dispersion. The study also revealed, through the average center model, the focus of grain production has shifted 42.7 km to the north-southwest direction in the region. The dialectical relationship between economic development and intensive land use is the main reason for the focus transfer of rain production. Grain production in Hebei Province is divided into climate yield and economic yield, correlation analysis showed that input factors affecting grain production from 1986 to 2006 are diversified. The main factors which affected food production are the effective irrigated area, fertilizer application rate, the total power of farm machinery, grain sown area and so on. Finally, policies and measures of regional food safety were proposed, based on space difference research of the grain production.
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