近年来,北京市能源强度呈现出不断下降的趋势,准确计量影响能源强度变动的各因素所产生的节能效果,可为未来进一步挖掘节能潜力提供参考。论文采用能源强度变化的完全分解模型,以1985—2007年为样本期,对影响北京市能源强度变化的结构因素和效率因素进行了计量。结果表明:在整个样本期内,效率和结构因素都对北京市的节能产生了正向作用,并且效率因素的节能效果大于结构因素。分阶段分析显示,2000年以后,结构节能效果表现出逐渐增强的趋势。由此可见,目前北京市的效率节能效果良好,结构节能效果有所发挥,但仍有潜力可挖,并且最大潜力在于工业部门内部结构的变化。

Beijing’s energy intensity has decreasing continually in recent years. The quantitative analysis of the factors of energy intensity is precondition of looking for energy saving approach in the future. The paper uses method of complete decomposition model to analyze the influence of structure and efficiency on energy intensity from 1985 to 2007 in Beijing. The result indicates that both structure and efficiency are factors which promote energy intensity decrease during 1985-2007. Energy intensity decreased 6.17 tons of standard coal per ten thousand yuan in 1985-2007, in which contribution rate of structure and efficiency is respectively 24.68% and 75.32%. Further analysis result by stages shows that energy intensity decreased 4.95 tons of standard coal per ten thousand yuan in 1985-2000, in which contribution rate of structure and efficiency is respectively 34.59% and 65.41%; energy intensity decreased 1.22 tons of standard coal per ten thousand yuan in 2000-2007, in which contribution rate of structure and efficiency is respectively 38.29% and 61.71%. Thus, energy saving effect of structure has been strengthened gradually after 2000. Conclusively, efficiency effect for energy saving is good, structure has a little effect for energy saving, but there is still energy saving potential by structure in the future, and the biggest energy saving potential is in industrial departments. Moreover, as a high energy consumption department in the tertiary industry, transportation, storage and posts services’ proportion in total energy consumption is advancing, so its negative effect to energy saving should not be ignored.