青藏高原草地植被和牲畜是影响该地区生态环境的主要影响因素, 因此, 研究此两项因素及
其之间的关系, 对于保护青藏高原生态环境、促进经济发展具有重要的意义。为此, 论文利用
2003—2004 年青藏高原天然草地产草量观测资料, 经过GPS 定位, 与NOAA/AVHRR 植被指数建
立了天然草地产草量反演模型及不同区域尺度天然草地年最大产草量、载畜量估算模型; 同时, 利
用粮食、油菜、青饲料等农业产量和林地面积等资料, 估算了青藏高原精、粗饲料的载畜能力, 分别
建立了天然草地以及考虑补饲后的草畜平衡监测模型, 分析了青藏高原及其县、地、省等不同区域
天然草地以及区域总体牲畜承载能力和草畜平衡状况。结果表明: 青海和西藏在天然草地和农业等
其它补饲共同承载下, 2003—2004 年年平均最大载畜能力分别为3 140×104、2 865×104 只标准羊单
位, 超载率分别为16%、78%, 两省平均超载率为45%。分地州来看, 两省除青海的果洛州和玉树州
实际牲畜数量没有超过当地的最大承载能力、青海海西州和西藏林芝地区草畜基本平衡以外, 其余
地州均有不同程度的超载, 其中果洛州和玉树州天然草地牲畜超载率分别为- 11%、- 26%, 利于“三
江源”地区天然草地植被的恢复和生态环境的改善; 青海黄南州、海北州、海南州、西宁市、海东地区
和西藏昌都、那曲、阿里地区牲畜超载率为45%～97%, 西藏拉萨市、日喀则、山南地区达115%～
153%, 这些地区应适当降低牲畜数量或加大补饲力度, 以减轻对当地生态承载的压力。青海牲畜超
载的县主要位于东部, 西藏超载的县主要位于西部和南部大部地区。
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