基于生态足迹和EMD方法,分析了中国1961~2005年生态可持续性的周期性变化,并建立具有周期性波动的非线性动力学模型,预测未来10年中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力的发展趋势。结果发现:44年来,中国人均生态足迹具有明显的4.3年、14.3年和17年3个波动周期,人均生物承载力具有明显的3.5年、8.8年、17.7年和44年4个波动周期;若未来10年中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力均延续过去44年的变化趋势,则2015年人均生态足迹、生物承载力、生态赤字将分别为1.366ghm2、1.108ghm2和0.258ghm2,人均生态足迹和生态赤字较2005年分别下降了0.27ghm2、0.441ghm2,而人均生物承载力增加了0.171ghm2。在保持经济、技术和人民生活水平稳步提高的同时,这种程度的生态超载有可能通过贸易引进生物承载力,通过技术进步、提高管理水平等增加生物承载力得到缓解。
The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a valid method for measuring sustainable development through ecological impact. It has gained much attention in academic, policy-oriented and popular literature since its introduction in the mid-1990s. However, only few studies have addressed the problem of EF in the realm of long time series prediction with nonlinear dynamic model. The fluctuant cycles of China's per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity from 1961 to 2005 are decomposed and picked-up based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method in this paper. Nonlinear dynamic prediction models are presented with the cycles, and per capita EF and BC in China are predicted from 2006 to 2015. This research could be meaningful for predicting regional sustainable development status; at the same time, we hope it would provide new access to effective methodology in predicting and interpreting the EF in long time series.Over last 44 years, the obvious undulation cycles of per capita EF growth in China are 4.3 years, 14.3 years and 17 years. Per capita BC growth in China is 3.5 years, 8.8 years, 17.7 years and 44 years. Per capita EF would decrease from 1.636gha in 2005 to 1.366gha in 2015 and per capita BC in China would increase from 0.925gha in 2005 to 1.108gha in 2015 if their average annual change rates are constant. Per capita ED in China would be 0.258gha in 2015. Therefore, China could denote sustainability at the global level with the growth of economic development, technology advancement, and standard of living enhancement.
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