从二元水循环角度分析地表水资源开发利用率的影响因素,说明地表水资源开发利用率与河道生态需水、回归水及其污染物浓度之间有着密切的关系。以河道生态需水、污径比为约束条件,分析了水资源开发利用率与消耗系数之间的关系,其呈现出logistic曲线增长趋势,随着消耗系数的增加,允许水资源开发利用率经历逐渐增加→最大值→下降的趋势,波动的范围从20%→50%→40%。以我国七大河流为例,估算了在当前水资源消耗水平下地表水资源允许开发利用率的阈值。结果表明:松花江、辽河、海河、黄河、淮河、长江、珠江的阈值分别是34%、38%、45%、36%、38%、31%、32%。与现状水资源开发利用率比较的结果是,松花江、长江、珠江等3条河流的水资源开发利用率在其阈值范围之内,辽河、海河、黄河、淮河等4条河流的开发利用率均超过了最大允许开发利用率。
This essay analyzes the factors effecting the exploitation rate of surface water resources from the point of view of binary water circulation.The result indicates that there is close relationship between the exploitation rate of surface water resources and watercourse ecological demands of water,also between regression water and its pollutants' concentration.Besides,in this essay,taking the watercourse ecological demands of water and the ratio between the quantities of polluted water and runoff for condition,the connection between the exploitation of water resources and consumption coefficients is discussed,which presents the increasing trends in logistic curve.With the augment of consumption coefficients,the exploitation rate of water resources is allowed to experience a trend from increasing to maximum to decreasing,while the range is from 20% to 50% to 40%.Taking the seven major rivers in China as an example,this essay estimates the allowable thresholds of exploitation rate of surface water resources under the condition of current water resources consumption.The result shows that the thresholds of Songhuajiang River,Liaohe River,Haihe River,Yellow River,Huaihe River,Yangtze River and Zhujiang River prove to be respectively 34%,38%,45%,36%,38%,31% and 32%.Compared with the seven rivers current exploitation rate of water resources,the results show that the rates of Songhuajiang,Yangtze River and Zhujiang River are within their thresholds' range,while the rates of Liaohe River and Haihe River,Yellow River and Huaihe River all exceed the maximal allowable exploitation rate.
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