广西涠洲岛气象站由于其特定的地理位置,使得该站成为广西为数不多、大气观测环境50年来持续保持原有生态环境的气象台站之一。应用该岛屿气象站及与之相邻的广西北海市合浦气象站1956~2005年的气温、雨量等气象资料,分析、比较近50年来北部湾海域气候自然变化和在城镇大规模发展影响下气候变化的差异及发展趋势:用Yamamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均气温、雨量等要素季和年时间序列进行突变检验,对定量地论述在全球气候变暖情况下区域性气候自然变化的响应有非常重要的意义。
Weizhoudao island meteorological station has been keeping its original environment because of its special geographic position during the last 50 years.In the vicinity of Weizhoudao island,landing surface of Hepu meteorological station has been changed tremendously as urban growth since the 1980s.Based on the data of monthly air temperature and precipitation from both meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005.The difference of climate variations and tendencies of Weizhoudao island have been ananlyzed and compared with Hepu meteorological station during the last 50 years.The climate jump has been examined in terms of 5-year moving average season and annual series of 2 factors using Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method.The annual mean temperature was tending to go up and increased 0.615℃ in Weizhoudao island and 1.04℃ in Hepu during the last 50 years.The departure values of annual mean temperature have been positive since 1989.The linear tendency values of annual pecipitation was tending to go up and increased 119.6mm in Weizhoudao island during the last 50 years.The variation of annual precipitaion in Weizhoudao island during the last 50 years had gone throng two increase periods that occurred from 1972 to 1986 and 1993 to 2002.Between them there was a decrease period from 1956 to 1971 and 1987 to 1992 and 2003 to 2005.Climate jumps tested by both Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method in Weizhoudao island during the last 50 years are as follows.According to the annual mean temperature,an abrupt warming occurred in the late 1980s.The amplitude of abrupt variation was +0.35℃.The seasonal abrupt warming in spring,summer,autumn and winter all took place in the mid or the late 1980s,and abrupt warming in winter since 1997.The abrupt change of summer and winter precipitation occurred prior to the 1970s.Based on the facts of climate changes of Weizhoudao island,it is held that the abrupt warming of the Weizhoudao island during 50 years probably resulted from keeping original ecosystem environment.
[1] 林学椿,于淑秋.近40年我国气候趋势[J].气象,1990,16(10):16~21.[LIN Xue-chun,YU Shu-qiu.Climatic trend in China for the last 40 years.Meteorological Monthly,1990,16(10):16-21.]
[2] 陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文.中国近45年来气候变化的研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(3):257-271.[CHEN Long-xun,ZHU Wen-qin,WANG Wen.Studies on climate change in China in recent 45 years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1998,56(3):257-271.]
[3] 高素华,潘亚茹,郭建平.我国近40年的温度变化及其对农业生产的影响[J].气象,1994,20(5):36~41.[GAO Su-hua,PAN Ya-ru,GUO Jian-ping.The temperature change and its influences on agricultural production in China for the last 40 years.Meteorological Monthly,1994,20(5):36-41.]
[4] 严中伟.60年代北半球夏季气候跃变过程的初步分析[J].大气科学,1992,16(1):111~119.[YAN Zhong-wei.A primary analysis of the process of the 1960s northern hemispheric summer climatic jump.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1992,16(1):111-119.]
[5] 闫敏华,邓伟,马学慧,等.大面积开荒扰动下的三江平原近45年气候变化[J].地理学报,2001,56(2):159~170.[YAN Min-hua,DENG Wei,MA Xue-hui,et al.Climate variation in the Sanjiang Plain disturbed by large scale reclamation during the last 45 years.Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,56(2):159-170.]
[6] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482~493.[FU Cong-bin,WANG Qiang.The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1992,16(4):482-493.]
[7] 彭子成,陈特固,聂宝符,等.近50余年来南海西沙海域冬季风强度的变率[J].地理学报,2003,58(5):721~726.[PENG Zi-cheng, CHEN Te-gu,NIE Bao-fu,et al.The variability of winter monsoon intensity in Xisha Waters,South China Sea for the last more than 50 years.Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(5):721-726.]
[8] 张永领,何桐,高全洲,等.西江流域气温变化的气候特征分析[J].资源科学,2006,28(3):30~36.[ZHANG Yong-ling,HE Tong,GAO Quan-zhou,et al.Climate characteristics of temperature variation in Xijiang River watershed.Resources Science,2006,28(3):30-36.]
[9] 陈峪,高歌,任国玉,等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637~643.[CHEN Yu,GAO Ge,REN Guo-yu,et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten major basins in China between 1956 and 2000.Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(5):637-643.]
[10] 陆世宏.制度变迁、经济增长点与县域产业结构优化——以建国以来广西合浦县历史分析为例[J].广西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006,28(4):12~18.[LU Shi-hong. The system change and economy increase point and the optimization of county industrial sryucture: The case analysis of Guangxi Hepu county history during the last 50 years.Journal of Guangxi University(Philosophy and Social Science),2006,28(4):12-18.]
[11] 合浦县志编篡委员会.合浦县志[Z].南宁:广西人民出版社,1994.598~605,734.
