20世纪80年代中期以来的气候变暖,尤其是90年代中期以来的气候显著变暖带给社会经济发展的利与弊,一直以来受到广泛关注。气候变暖对于建筑耗能,尤其是对采暖和降温总耗能的影响很值得研究。论文以主要使用电能进行空间调节的中国夏热冬冷地区为对象,以《夏热冬冷地区居住建筑节能设计标准JCJ134-2001》中所规定的采暖、降温耗电量限值为依据,研究了气候变暖对该区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量、降温年耗电量及采暖降温年耗电总量的影响。结果表明,1986年以来的气候变暖,尤其是1996年以来的气候显著变暖,理论上使夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量降低;同时增加了相当一部分地区居住建筑单位面积降温年耗电量;除个别地区外,气候变暖理论上使中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖降温耗电总量普遍下降。
Benefits and disadvantages caused by global warming on socio-economic development have been paid much attention.It is without question that climate warming can save heating energy consumption and can increase cooling energy consumption.However,it is complicated that the impact of climate warming on the total energy consumption for heating and cooling.Meanwhile,seasonal and spatial variations of climate warming can cause different impacts,even in a same architecture thermal design zone.In this paper,impacts of climate warming since the mid-1980s and the impacts of distinct climate warming since the mid-1990s on heating and cooling electricity consumptions in the hot summer and cool winter zone of China,where people use electricity for heating and cooling their living rooms,are analyzed,respectively.Based on the definition of Design Standard for Energy Efficiency of Residential Buildings in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zone,impacts on total electricity consumption for heating and cooling are analyzed too.There are conclusions:climate warming since the mid-1980s,especially since the mid-1990s,has saved the heating electricity consumption in most areas and increased the cooling energy consumption in many areas.In general,climate warming has saved the total electricity consumption for heating and cooling in hot summer and cool winter zone except few areas.
[1] Segal M,Shafir H,Mandel M,et al.Climatic-related evaluations of the summer peak-hours’electric load in Israel[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1992,31:1492-1498.
[2] Pardo A,Meneu V,Valor E.Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load[J].Energy Economics,2002,24:55-70.
[3] Sailor J D,Rosen N J,Muňoz R.Natural gas consumption and climate:A comprehensive set of predictive state-level models for the United States[J].Energy,1998,23(2):91-103.
[4] Warren E H,Leduc K S.Impact of climate on energy sector in economic analysis[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1981,20:1431-1439.
[5] 龙惟定.试论我国暖通空调业的可持续发展[J].暖通空调,1999,29(3):25~30.[LONG Wei-ding.Sustainable development of China’s HVAC industry.J.HV&AC,1999,29(3):25-30.]
[6] 付光轩.河南采暖气候条件的变化及其节能环保效应[J].郑州纺织工学院学报,2001,12(4):65~78.[FU Guang-xuan.The change of heating climatic condition and it’s effect on saving energy and environmental protection in Henan.Journal of Zhengzhou Textile Institute,2001,12(4):65-78.]
[7] 轩春怡,高燕虎,李慧君.北京市冬季采暖气候条件分析[J].气象科技,2003,31(6):373~375.[XUAN Chun-yi,GAO Yan-hu,LI Hui-jun.Analysis of heating climatic condition in winter in Beijing.Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(6):373-375.]
[8] 白美兰.内蒙古地区冬季持续变暖对采暖的影响[J].内蒙古气象,2001,(1):26~27.[BAI Mei-lan.Impacts of winter continuous warming on heating in Inner Mongolia.Mongolia Meteorology,2001,(1):26-27.]
[9] 陈峪,黄朝迎.气候变化对能源需求的影响[J].地理学报,2000,55(增):11~19.[CHEN Yu,HUANG Chao-ying.Impact of climate change on energy demand.Acta Geographica Sinica,2000,55(sup.):11-19.]
[10] 文远高,连之伟.气候变暖对建筑能耗的影响[J].建筑热能通风空调,2003,(3):38~39,42.[WEN Yuan-gao,LIAN Zhi-wei.Climate change impacts on energy consumption for heating and air conditioning.Building Energy & Environment,2003,(3):38-39,42.]
[11] 陈莉,方修睦,方修琦,等.过去20年气候变暖对我国冬季采暖气候条件与能源需求的影响[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(4):590~597.[CHEN Li,FANG Xiu-mu,FANG Xiu-qi,et al.Impacts of climate warming on heating climatic conditions and energy requirements over China in the past 20 years.Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(4):590-597.]
[12] 陈莉,方修琦,李帅.气候变暖对中国严寒地区和寒冷地区南界及采暖能耗的影响[J].科学通报,2007,52(10):1195~1198.[CHEN Li,FANG Xiu-qi,LI Shuai.Impacts of climate warming on heating energy consumption and southern boundaries of severe cold and cold regions in China.Chinese Science Bulletin,2007,52(20):2854-2858.]
[13] 中华人民共和国建设部.民用建筑热工设计规范(GB50176-93)[S].北京:中国计划出版社,1993.3~10.
[14] 任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹,等.近54年中国地面气温变化[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):717~727.[REN Guo-yu,XU Ming-zhi,CHU Zi-ying,et al.Changes of surface air temperature in China during 1951-2004.Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):717-727.]
[15] 魏凤英,曹鸿兴,王丽萍.20世纪80~90年代我国气候增暖进程的统计事实[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(1):79~86.[WEI Feng-ying,CAO Hong-xing,WANG Li-ping.Climatic warming process during 1980s-1990s in China.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(1):79-86.]
[16] 周自江.我国冬季气温变化与采暖分析[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(2):251~252.[ZHOU Zi-jiang.Changes of winter temperature and heating analysis in China.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2000,11(2):251-252.]
[17] Thom H C S.Seasonal degree day statistics for the United States[J].Monthly Weather Review,1952,80(9):143-147.
[18] Thom H C S.The rational relationship between heating degree days and temperature[J].Monthly Weather Review,1954,82(1):1-6.
[19] Thom H C S.Normal degree-days above any base by the universal truncation coefficient[J].Monthly Weather Review,1966,94(7):461-465.
[20] Durmayaz A,Kadioglu M.Heating energy requirements and fuel consumptions in the biggest city centers of Turkey[J].Energy Conversion and Management,2003,44:1177-1192.
[21] Heller A J.Heat-load modelling for large systems[J].Applied Energy,2002,72:371-387.
[22] Bulut H,Büyükalaca O,Y1lmaz T.New outdoor heating design data for Turkey[J].Energy,2003,28:1133-1150.
[23] Sarak H,Satman A.The degree-day method to estimate the residential heating natural gas consumption in Turkey:A case study[J].Energy,2003,28:929-939.
[24] Büyükalaca O,Bulut H,Y1lmaz T.Analysis of variable-base heating and cooling degree-days for Turkey[J].Applied Energy,2001,69:269-283.
[25] Kadioglu M,Sen Z.Degree-day formulations and applied in Turkey[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1999,38(6):837-846.
[26] Sailor J David.Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—Evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities[J]. Energy,2001,26:645-657.
[27] 中国建筑科学研究院,重庆大学.夏热冬冷地区居住建筑节能设计标准JCJ134-2001[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002.3~8.
[28] 付祥钊.夏热冬冷地区建筑节能技术[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004.11.
[29] IPCC.IPCC WGI fourth assessment report:Summary for policymakers.Http://www.ipcc.ch/spm2feb07.pdf,2007.11-14.
