鞍山市是我国重要的矿业城市,也是我国最大的钢铁生产基地之一,研究其生态承载力状况并预测其发展趋势,可为鞍山市可持续发展提供决策依据。基于矿业城市独特的生态系统内涵,建立了鞍山市生态承载力评价指标体系,运用熵值理论为基础的综合评判法,评价了"十五"期间鞍山市生态承载力状况,探讨了2010年鞍山市生态承载力变化趋势。结果表明:"十五"期间,鞍山市综合生态承载力处于临界安全状态,整体上呈现增长趋势,但经济压力、资源压力和生态健康等指标发展水平仍较低。生态承载力从超载逐渐转变为盈余状态,系统间协调度不断提高。按照鞍山市总体规划水平预测,2010年鞍山市综合生态承载力达到较安全状态,各指标没有低于临界安全的;生态承载力承载度和协调度进一步提高。运用综合评判法较客观地反映了鞍山市"十五"期间生态承载力状况,并进行了相对可靠的预测,可为其他地区生态承载力研究提供一定的借鉴。
As one of the important mining cities, Anshan was also one of the biggest steel industrial bases in China. In order to offer suggestions for the sustainable development of Anshan city, we should research the status and developing trend of ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city. Based on the unique meaning of mining cities, we established the indicator system about ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city. Using entropy weight and integrated index evaluation method, we researched the situation of ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city during the 10th Five-year Plan, and then we discussed the developing trend of ecological carrying capacity in 2010. The results showed that: during the 10th Five-year Plan, the integrated ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city was in a critical safe state; however, it was increasing throughout the period with an increase from 0.44 to 0.60. Pressure and support indicators were also increasing on the whole, being 0.61 in 2005 but inferior to the safety state. However, the indexes of economic pressure, resource pressure and ecological health were still low. Economic pressure was lower than the critical value from 2001 to 2004; resource pressure was lower than the critical value from 2001 to 2003; and ecological health was lower than it from 2001 to 2002. They would restrict the development of ecological carrying capacity in Anshan. The ecological carrying capacity changed from over loading to surplus, and the harmony degree of economy was increasing gradually. According to the layout level in Anshan city, the integrated ecological carrying capacity would be in a comparatively safe state and no indicators would be lower than the critical safety values. In addition, both the carrying degree and harmony degree of ecological carrying capacity would be increased. By the method of integrated index evaluation method, the ecological carrying capacity of Anshan city during the 10th Five-year Plan was well reflected and forecasted, which would be a good example for the research of ecological carrying capacity in other areas.
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