大食物观下中国食物缺口规模估算与破解路径
Research on estimation and pathways to address the scale of food gap in China under the greater food approach
当前中国食物安全问题的核心是结构安全和营养安全。基于中国食物生产、消费和贸易数据,从食用、贸易、营养维度测算食物缺口规模,引入虚拟水、虚拟土地概念测算水土资源缺口,在此基础上以大食物观为指导构建食物缺口破解路径。研究表明:(1)供给方面,食物产能提升的同时部分食物对外依存度抬高,生产结构呈口粮和猪肉比例缩小,玉米、禽肉和蔬菜等比例扩大态势;需求方面,食物表观需求普遍增长,膳食结构由“粮菜型”向“粮肉菜果多元型”转型。(2)综合食用、贸易和营养方面发现,玉米、大豆等九种食物存在缺口,虚拟水和虚拟土地缺口分别为2695.50亿m3和6882.83万hm2,缺口比例分别为22.49%、40.80%。(3)调整膳食结构、减量替代饲用豆粕、开发利用后备资源能弥补资源缺口进而保障食物安全,其中,健康膳食模式可节约虚拟水2759.87亿m3、虚拟土地9278.71万hm2。落实大食物观亟需构建大食物系统安全责任机制,优化食物安全评价标准和评价体系,从全产业链、全资源利用口径保障食物安全。
At present, the core of China's food safety problem is structural safety and nutritional safety. Based on the data of food production, consumption and trade in China, this paper calculates the scale of food gap from the dimensions of consumption, trade and nutrition, and introduces the concepts of virtual water and virtual land to calculate the water and soil resource gap. On this basis, the solution path of food gap is constructed under the guidance of the concept of the greater food approach. The research indicates that: (1) On the supply side, while food production capacity is increasing, the external dependence for some food items is also rising. The production structure shows a trend of reduced proportions of grains and pork, and expanded proportions of corn, poultry meat, vegetables, etc. On the demand side, apparent food demand is generally increasing, and the dietary structure is transitioning from a "grain and vegetable-based" type to a "grain, meat, vegetable, and fruit diversified" type. (2) Through comprehensive analysis of consumption, trade, and nutrition, it is found that nine types of food, including corn and soybeans, have gaps. The virtual water and virtual land gaps are 269.55 billion m3 and 68.8283 million ha respectively, with gap ratios of 22.49% and 40.80%, respectively. (3) Adjusting dietary structure, reducing and substituting the use of soybean meal for animal feed, and developing and utilizing backup resources can mitigate resource gaps and ensure food security. Among these, adopting a healthy dietary pattern can save 275.987 billion m3 of virtual water and 92.7871 million ha of virtual land. Implementing the greater food approach concept urgently requires the establishment of a macro food system security responsibility mechanism, optimization of food security evaluation standards and evaluation systems, and guanantee of food security from the perspective of the entire industry chain and comprehensive resource utilization.
大食物观 / 食物安全 / 资源安全 / 食物缺口 / 破解路径 {{custom_keyword}} /
greater food approach / food security / resource security / food gap / pathways to resolution {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 2021年中国主要食物供需状态Table 1 State of supply and demand of major foods in China in 2021 |
食物类型 | 人均食用消费量 /(kg/人/年) | 人均产量 /(kg/人/年) | 总需求量 /万t | 净进口量 /万t | 自给率 /% | 供给状态 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
小麦 | 72.89 | 96.94 | 14665.16 | 970.71 | 93.38 | 产不足需 |
稻谷 | 130.25 | 150.67 | 21282.89 | -1.35 | 100.01 | 绝对安全 |
玉米 | 8.56 | 192.94 | 30089.20 | 2834.14 | 90.58 | 产不足需 |
薯类 | 21.26 | 21.54 | 3002.79 | -40.75 | 101.36 | 绝对安全 |
大豆 | 5.21 | 11.61 | 11283.86 | 9644.32 | 14.53 | 产不足需 |
食用植物油 | 26.05 | 35.20 | 6012.00 | 1039.00 | 82.72 | 产不足需 |
猪肉 | 33.95 | 37.49 | 5649.01 | 353.08 | 93.75 | 产不足需 |
牛肉 | 7.55 | 4.94 | 930.77 | 233.26 | 74.94 | 产不足食 |
羊肉 | 3.85 | 3.64 | 554.94 | 40.86 | 92.64 | 产不足食 |
禽肉 | 17.17 | 17.57 | 2563.20 | 80.73 | 96.85 | 产不足需 |
蛋类 | 22.17 | 24.13 | 3398.53 | -10.28 | 100.30 | 绝对安全 |
奶类 | 34.48 | 26.75 | 5968.35 | 2190.25 | 63.30 | 产不足食 |
水产品 | 34.27 | 48.60 | 7057.86 | 191.95 | 97.28 | 产不足需 |
水果 | 110.36 | 212.16 | 30140.80 | 170.60 | 99.43 | 产不足需 |
蔬菜 | 402.68 | 548.98 | 76575.76 | -973.02 | 101.27 | 绝对安全 |
表2 2021年中国主要食物消费及营养需求状况Table 2 Consumption and nutritional requirements of major foods in China in 2021 (kg/人/年) |
食物类型 | 人均食用消费量 (FAO数据) | 推荐摄入量 《指南》 | 考虑可食部分和 损耗后的营养需求 | 是否存在 营养缺口 | 缺口规模 /万t | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
谷类 | 小麦 | 72.89 | 92 | 102 | 否 | — |
稻谷 | 130.25 | |||||
玉米 | 8.56 | |||||
薯类 | 21.26 | 28 | 34 | 是 | 1820.32 | |
大豆 | 5.21 | 12 | 13 | 是 | 1147.47 | |
食用植物油 | 26.05 | 10 | 10 | 否 | — | |
肉类 | 猪肉 | 33.95 | 21 | 25 | 否 | — |
牛肉 | 7.55 | |||||
羊肉 | 3.85 | |||||
禽肉 | 17.17 | |||||
蛋类 | 22.17 | 17 | 19 | 否 | — | |
奶类(折合鲜奶) | 34.48 | 110 | 110 | 是 | 10667.30 | |
水产品 | 34.27 | 21 | 39 | 是 | 652.46 | |
果蔬 | 水果 | 110.36 | 100 | 122 | 是 | 1636.83 |
蔬菜 | 402.68 | 130 | 169 | 否 | — |
注:由于不同数据库薯类人均食用消费量差异较大,此处薯类消费数据采用人均表观消费量;在考虑不可食用部位、正常损耗等因素后,确定粮食、薯类、肉类、蛋类、水产品、水果、蔬菜的有效食用比例分别为90%、82%、85%、89%、54%、82%、77%。 |
表3 2021年中国主要食物缺口规模Table 3 Scale of China's main food gap in 2021 (万t) |
食物类型 | 食用 | 贸易 | 营养 | 综合缺口 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
能否保障 | 缺口规模 | 能否保障 | 缺口规模 | 能否保障 | 缺口规模 | ||||||
谷类 | 小麦 | √ | — | × | 970.71 | √ | — | 970.71 | |||
稻谷 | √ | — | √ | — | — | ||||||
玉米 | √ | — | × | 2834.14 | 2834.14 | ||||||
薯类 | √ | — | √ | — | × | 1820.32 | 1820.32 | ||||
大豆 | √ | — | × | 9644.32 | × | 1147.47 | 9644.32 | ||||
食用植物油 | √ | — | × | 1039.00 | √ | — | — | ||||
肉类 | 猪肉 | √ | — | × | 353.08 | √ | — | — | |||
牛肉 | × | 369.59 | × | 233.26 | 233.26 | ||||||
羊肉 | × | 29.22 | × | 40.86 | 40.86 | ||||||
禽肉 | √ | — | × | 80.73 | — | ||||||
蛋类 | √ | — | √ | — | √ | — | — | ||||
奶类(折合鲜奶) | × | 1093.20 | × | 2190.25 | × | 10667.30 | 10667.30 | ||||
水产品 | √ | — | × | 191.95 | × | 652.46 | 652.46 | ||||
果蔬 | 水果 | √ | — | × | 170.60 | × | 1636.83 | 1636.83 | |||
蔬菜 | √ | — | √ | — | √ | — | — |
表4 2021年中国主要食物虚拟水缺口规模Table 4 Scale of virtual water gap for major foods in China in 2021 |
食物类型 | 虚拟水含量 /(m3/t) | 按产量计虚拟水 总量/亿m3 | 虚拟水缺口/亿m3 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
食用 | 贸易 | 营养 | 综合 | ||||
谷类 | 小麦 | 302 | 413.57 | — | 29.32 | — | 29.32 |
稻谷 | 745 | 1585.68 | — | — | — | — | |
玉米 | 194 | 528.75 | — | 54.98 | — | 54.98 | |
薯类 | 230 | 70.00 | — | — | 41.87 | 41.87 | |
大豆 | 484 | 79.35 | — | 466.79 | 55.54 | 466.79 | |
食用植物油 | 2114 | 1051.29 | — | 219.64 | — | — | |
肉类 | 猪肉 | 3819 | 2022.52 | — | 134.84 | — | — |
牛肉 | 29625 | 2066.37 | 1094.91 | 691.03 | — | 691.03 | |
羊肉 | 11399 | 586.00 | 33.31 | 46.58 | — | 46.58 | |
禽肉 | 3111 | 772.30 | — | 25.12 | — | — | |
蛋类 | 1895 | 645.97 | — | — | — | — | |
奶类(折合鲜奶) | 1171 | 442.42 | 128.01 | 256.48 | 1249.14 | 1249.14 | |
水产品 | 1549 | 1063.53 | — | 29.73 | 101.07 | 101.07 | |
果蔬 | 水果 | 90 | 269.73 | — | 1.54 | 14.73 | 14.73 |
蔬菜 | 50 | 387.74 | — | — | — | — | |
虚拟水缺口合计 | — | 11985.22 | 1256.23 | 1956.04 | 1462.34 | 2695.50 | |
虚拟水缺口比例/% | — | — | 10.48 | 16.32 | 12.20 | 22.49 |
表5 2021年中国主要食物虚拟土地缺口规模Table 5 Scale of virtual land gap for major foods in China in 2021 |
食物类型 | 虚拟土地缺口/万hm2 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
食用 | 贸易 | 营养 | 综合 | ||
谷类 | 小麦 | — | 167.05 | — | 167.05 |
稻谷 | — | — | — | — | |
玉米 | — | 450.51 | — | 450.51 | |
薯类 | — | — | 438.61 | 438.61 | |
大豆 | — | 4950.22 | 588.97 | 4950.22 | |
食用植物油 | — | 421.52 | — | — | |
肉类 | 猪肉 | — | 93.88 | — | — |
牛肉 | 867.35 | 547.41 | — | 547.41 | |
羊肉 | 28.85 | 40.34 | — | 40.34 | |
禽肉 | — | 16.13 | — | — | |
蛋类 | — | — | — | — | |
奶类(折合鲜奶) | 21.48 | 43.04 | 209.62 | 209.62 | |
水产品 | — | 2.68 | 9.11 | 9.11 | |
果蔬 | 水果 | — | 7.29 | 69.95 | 69.95 |
蔬菜 | — | — | — | — | |
虚拟土地缺口合计 | 917.68 | 6740.08 | 1316.26 | 6882.83 | |
农作物总播种面积 | 16869.51 | ||||
虚拟土地缺口比例/% | 5.44 | 39.95 | 7.80 | 40.80 |
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我国食物安全保障面临国际供应链不稳定、食物系统转型升级、碳减排压力增大等新形势,未来食物供需情况不容乐观,因而深化国家食物安全战略研究需求迫切。基于中国农业产业模型进行了预测分析,我国粮食供求缺口将在2030 年达到峰值(1.66×10<sup>8</sup> t),粮食自给率将持续下滑,2035—2050 年的粮食供需缺口将有所减少;2020—2050 年的畜产品、水产品、油菜籽和糖的总需求量将继续增长,净进口量将同步保持增长。面向我国食物安全在耕地、供应链、营养结构、系统风险、科技创新等方面存在的突出问题,建议确立新型大食物安全观,在坚持“以我为主、立足国内、确保产能、适度进口、科技支撑”的基础上,实施“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全、主要农产品自主可控、确保国家食物主控权”的食物安全总体战略。坚守口粮自给率97%、谷物自给率90%、粮食自给率80%的战略底线,围绕“振兴种业、提升地力、防灾减灾、高效低碳”目标,部署现代种业提升、高标准粮田建设、区域食物安全保障、农业绿色低碳、饲料蛋白质替代等重大工程。同步实施强化食物消费需求管理、拓展食物供应链、加强风险管控等举措,充分保障国家食物数量、质量和营养安全。
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Food security in China is facing new challenges, including instability of the international supply chain, transformation and upgrading of the food system, and increased pressure to further reduce carbon emissions, making the future supply and demand situation of food in China unoptimistic. Therefore, it is imperative to deepen research on national food security strategies. As is predicted using the China Agricultural Sector Model, China’s grain supply and demand gap will reach the peak (1.66 × 108 t) in 2030 and its food self-sufficiency rate will continuously decline; however, the gap is expected to drop from 2035–2050. From 2020–2050, the total demand for livestock products, aquatic products, rapeseed, and sugar will continuously grow while their net imports will maintain growth. To address the prominent problems regarding food security in China in terms of farmland, supply chain, nutritional structure, systemic risk, and technological innovation, we propose the establishment of an all-encompassing approach to food. Additionally, food security should be maintained by relying on domestic production and supported by moderate imports and technological innovation. An overall food-security strategy that features self-sufficiency of grains, self-reliance of major agricultural products, and national food sovereignty should be implemented. We should hold on to the bottom line of maintaining a selfsufficiency rate of 97% for staple grains, 90% for grains, and 80% for overall grain supply. Focusing on the goals of revitalizing the seed industry, boosting land capacity, preventing and mitigating disasters, and achieving high efficiency and low carbon, we suggest a series of major projects for upgrading the seed industry, constructing high-standard grain fields, guaranteeing regional food security, promoting green and low-carbon development of agriculture, and substituting conventional feed protein. Furthermore, major measures should be adopted to strengthen food demand management, expand food supply chains, and enhance risk control, thereby ensuring the quantity, quality, and nutritional security of national food. {{custom_citation.content}}
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粮食生产的根本在耕地,耕地保护是确保国家食物安全的基石。本文基于1987—2020年中国居民食物消费数据,引入虚拟土地概念及进口食物数据测算食物消费所需耕地面积和虚拟进口耕地,并探析该阶段中国全域和分区农业种植结构,在此基础上构建“大食物观”背景下中国耕地保护的分区调控与协同机制。中国居民膳食结构呈现出动物性食物消费量上升并逐渐以肉类为主的特征,由此研究发现关于耕地调控的结论如下:① 1987—2020年中国居民食物所需耕地面积逐渐逼近临界值,虚拟进口耕地增加近20倍,且耕地需求正在向多元化种植需求导向转变。② 中国全域农业种植结构尚未满足居民膳食消费需求,存在结构失衡、供给不足和库存过剩的问题,九大农区农业种植结构存在显著差异。③ 耕地保护转型应以保护现有耕地资源为基底,以种植结构转型、调控农区生产布局为主力,落实区间协同和保障适当的国际进口为辅助,以系统视角出发将耕地资源压力向生命共同体转移为核心,多方位构建中国耕地分区保护机制。文章可为制定食物均衡需求导向的耕地保护方略提供科学参考,为新时代保障国家食物安全和资源可持续利用提供理论菜单。
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The foundation of food production lies in cultivated land, and the protection of cultivated land is the cornerstone to ensure national food security. Based on the food consumption data of Chinese residents from 1987 to 2020, this study introduced the concept of virtual land and imported food data to estimate the cultivated land area required for food and virtual imported cultivated land, and analyzed the overall and zonal agricultural planting structure of China at this stage. On this basis, it constructed the zonal regulation and coordination mechanism of cultivated land protection in China in the context of "Greater Food" approach. The Chinese dietary structure presented the characteristics of increasing animal food consumption and gradually focusing on meat. Therefore, this study found the following conclusions on the regulation of cultivated land: (1) From 1987 to 2020, the cultivated land required by the Chinese dietary structure gradually approached the critical value. The virtual imported cultivated land increased by nearly 20 times, and the cultivated land demand was changing to the orientation of diversified planting demand. (2) The total agricultural planting structure in China has not yet met the dietary consumption demand of residents, and there are problems of structural imbalance, insufficient supply, and excess inventory. There are significant differences in the agricultural planting structure of the nine major agricultural areas of China. (3) The transformation of cultivated land protection should take the protection of existing cultivated land resources as the base, the transformation of planting structure, the regulation of agricultural production layout as the main force, the implementation of regional coordination and the guarantee of appropriate international imports as the assistance, and the transfer of pressure on cultivated land resources to the living community as the core from a systematic perspective, so as to build a multi-directional protection mechanism for China's cultivated land. This study can provide a scientific reference for the formulation of cultivated land protection strategy oriented by food balance demand and provide a theoretical menu for ensuring national food security and sustainable resource utilization in the new era. {{custom_citation.content}}
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China purchases around 66% of the soy that is traded internationally. This strains the global food supply and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we show that optimizing the maize and soy production of China can improve its self-sufficiency and also alleviate adverse environmental effects. Using data from more than 1,800 counties in China, we estimate the area-weighted yield potential (Y) and yield gaps, setting the attainable yield (Y) as the yield achieved by the top 10% of producers per county. We also map out county-by-county acreage allocation and calculate the attainable production capacity according to a set of sustainability criteria. Under optimized conditions, China would be able to produce all the maize and 45% of the soy needed by 2035-while reducing nitrogen fertilizer use by 26%, reactive nitrogen loss by 28% and greenhouse gas emissions by 19%-with the same acreage as 2017, our reference year.© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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通过梳理美国、欧盟、日本、韩国和中国台湾的食物消费统计资料,本文发现食物消费存在四大特点,分别是在经济水平发达之前食品消费严重依赖本国(地区)农业自然资源禀赋、食物消费饱和状态广泛存在、班尼特法则和在外饮食常态化。另外,当人均GDP进入15 000美元~20 000美元区间后,食物消费趋于稳定或缓慢增长,粮食和肉类人均消费(包含水产品)均趋近于“双百”状态:口粮消费约100千克,肉类和水产品加总约100千克。通过考察中国内地的食物消费现状,本文发现2020年后中国内地的食物消费将趋于稳定或进入缓慢增长阶段,在肉类、植物油和食糖消费上还存在较大缺口。
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郑海霞, 尤飞, 罗其友, 等. 面向2050年我国农业资源平衡与国际进口潜力研究. 中国工程科学, 2022, 24(1): 20-28.
受农业高质量发展、食物消费结构转型升级、气候变化的多重影响,我国农业资源供需平衡日益趋紧,因而统筹利用国际国内两种资源、两个市场,保障我国中长期粮食安全至关重要。本文在对比分析国内、国际农业资源的基础上,研究了我国2035 年和2050 年的粮食消费需求、消费结构、供给结构,分析了未来农业资源供需缺口以及虚拟水、虚拟耕地的可进口潜力与进口来源地,据此展望了我国农业水土资源利用的目标。研究表明:我国虚拟耕地进口将在2048 年前后达到峰值,需进口虚拟耕地近6.147×10<sup>7</sup> hm<sup>2</sup>;虚拟水进口量在2045 年前后达到峰值,虚拟水进口量为1.136×10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>(以蓝水估算),约为2017 年全国农业总用水量的30%;可增加的耕地进口潜力主要来自南美洲和非洲。
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The balance of supply and demand for agricultural resources in China is becoming increasingly tight due to the multiple effects of high-quality agricultural production, transformation and upgrading of food consumption structure, and climate change. Therefore, it is crucial for China to integrate the international and domestic resources and markets to ensure food security in the medium and long term. Based on a comparative analysis of agricultural resources in China and abroad, we investigate food consumption demand, consumption structure, and supply structure in China by 2035 and 2050. The agricultural resource utilization targets for China by 2035 and 2050 are proposed based on an analysis of the agricultural resource supply-demand gap as well as import potentials and sources of virtual water and virtual arable land. We find that the import of virtual arable land by China will reach a peak around 2048, with nearly 6.147×107 hm2. Virtual water imports will reach a peak around 2045. If estimated by blue water, virtual water imports will be 1.136×108 m3, accounting for 30% of the total agricultural water consumption in 2017. The increase in the import potentials of China’s arable land will mainly come from South America and Africa. {{custom_citation.content}}
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宋敏, 张安录. 大食物观视阈下的耕地利用转型: 现实挑战、理论逻辑与实现路径. 中国土地科学, 2023, 37(8): 31-41.
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王波, 刘同山. 大食物观下建设农业强国保障粮食安全的挑战及其应对. 农村经济, 2023, (4): 1-9.
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熊学振, 孙雨萌, 杨春. 中国畜牧业与资源环境承载力的时空耦合协调关系. 经济地理, 2022, 42(2): 153-162.
高质量发展背景下,探究畜牧业生产布局与资源环境承载力的时空耦合关系是破解畜牧业资源环境约束的关键。以肉蛋奶蛋白当量度量畜牧业生产布局,构建涵盖资源供给、环境消纳、社会支持三大系统的畜牧业资源环境承载力评价体系,分别采用状态空间模型、耦合协调指数测算全国省域畜牧业资源环境承载力及其与畜牧业布局的时空耦合协调关系,并采用GWR模型分析耦合协调关系的驱动因素及空间异质性特征。结果表明:①全国畜牧业资源环境承载力现实值小幅增长,多数省区超载状态有一定改善。②承载力提升拉近实际承载状态与最优承载状态的距离,全国平均协调度已稳定在0.920上下,畜牧业布局与资源环境承载力由低度协调提升并稳定于中度协调水平。③耕地资源配置、畜牧业集聚度、环境治理力度、草地资源配置是影响协调关系的主要因素且影响效果存在地理空间非平稳性。
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Under the background of high-quality development,exploring the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between animal husbandry layout and resource environmental carrying capacity is the key to solve the resource and environment constraints of animal husbandry. Based on the meat,eggs and dairy products,this paper uses protein equivalent to analyze the production layout of animal husbandry,builds the evaluation system of resource environmental carrying capacity(RECC) of animal husbandry from the perspectives of resource supply,adjusting ability of the environment,social support. It measures RECC and coupling coordination relationship between RECC and layout of animal husbandry by the means of the state space model and the coupling coordination index. According to the GWR model,this pape analyzes the driving factors and spatial heterogeneity of the coupling coordination relationship. The results show that: 1) The actual value of RECC of animal husbandry increased slightly in China,and the overloading state has improved to some extent in most provinces and regions. 2) The improvement of RECC has narrowed the distance between the actual carrying state and the optimal carrying state,and the national average coordination degree has stabilized at about 0.920. The coordination between the distribution of animal husbandry and its RECC has increased from the low degree to the moderate level. 3) The allocation of cultivated land resources,the concentration degree of animal husbandry, the intensity of environmental governance,and the allocation of grassland resources are the main factors affecting the coordination relationship,and the effect is not stationary in geographical space.
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何可, 宋洪远. 资源环境约束下的中国粮食安全: 内涵、挑战与政策取向. 南京农业大学学报: 社会科学版, 2021, 21(3): 45-57.
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朱启荣, 孙雪洁, 杨媛媛. 虚拟水视角下中国农产品进出口贸易节水问题研究. 世界经济研究, 2016, (1): 87-98, 137.
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江帆, 种聪, 宋洪远. 农业生产托管何以提高粮食生产技术效率?. 自然资源学报, 2024, 39(3): 582-600.
基于全国14个省份2022年的微观调查数据,在理论分析的基础上,主要运用逆概率加权和逆概率加权回归调整的方法,实证检验了农业生产托管对粮食生产技术效率的影响效果和作用机制。研究发现:(1)农业生产托管参与决策受多种因素影响,是农户的一种“自选择”行为。(2)农户购买农业生产托管服务有利于提高粮食生产技术效率,相较于未购买服务的农户,购买服务农户的粮食生产技术效率会高出约2.51%~3.40%。原因在于,农业生产托管能够有效减少粮食生产中的农药、化肥投入,提高种粮农户的技术采纳概率。(3)农业生产托管对粮食生产技术效率的提升作用在产销平衡区、在小麦生产中表现得最为明显,且这一正向作用在小规模、高兼业水平、新生代的农户群体中更为突出。
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Based on micro survey data from 14 provincial-level regions of China in 2022, this paper empirically tests the impact and mechanism of agricultural production trusteeship on technology efficiency of grain production by using inverse probability weights and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment methods. The result shows that: (1) The participation of agricultural production trusteeship in decision-making is influenced by multiple factors and is a self-selection behavior of farmers. (2) The purchase of agricultural production trusteeship services by farmers is beneficial for improving the technical efficiency of grain production. Compared to farmers who do not purchase services, the technical efficiency of grain production by farmers who purchase services is about 2.51%-3.40% higher. The reason is that agricultural production trusteeship can effectively reduce the input of pesticides and fertilizers in grain production, and increase the probability of technology adoption by grain farmers. (3) Further analysis shows that the improvement effect of agricultural production trusteeship on the technical efficiency of grain production is most evident in the balancing areas of grain production and marketing and in wheat production, and the positive effect is more prominent in small-scale, high level of part-time employment, and the new generation of farmers. {{custom_citation.content}}
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辛良杰. 中国居民膳食结构升级、国际贸易与粮食安全. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(6): 1469-1480.
目前,中国居民膳食消费水平与结构正在由温饱型向全面小康型转变,形式上表现为由“粮菜型”向“粮肉菜果”多元型和由传统家庭烹饪型向现代便捷型转变。膳食消费结构和水平的改变将影响未来中国的粮食消费量。以中国台湾居民的膳食消费发展规律判断,目前中国大陆居民的膳食消费水平距离富裕水平下的稳定状态整体差距超过50%,肉禽类差距超过一倍。而2018年中国粮食表观自给率已经下降到了85%,大豆自给率仅为15%,虚拟耕地自给率仅为72.6%。在食物消费达到富裕稳定态时,中国不仅需要进口大量的蛋白饲料,还可能需要进口相当数量的能量饲料。基本结论为:仅仅依靠中国本土的农业生产资源已难以维持全面小康水平下的本土农产品需求,发展到富裕水平短缺将会更甚,依赖国际市场是必然需求。从维护生态环境的角度讲,在农产品进口贸易上可多考虑进口动物性产品,适当放开粮食类产品进口数量,自己生产水果、蔬菜等类的农产品。
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樊胜根, 田旭, 龙文进. 大食物观下我国食物供求均衡的挑战与对策. 华中农业大学学报: 社会科学版, 2024, (2): 1-9.
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刘长全, 韩磊, 李婷婷, 等. 大食物观下中国饲料粮供给安全问题研究. 中国农村经济, 2023, (1): 33-57.
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许留兴, 武丹, 张建国. 广东种植不同小麦的全株产量、营养成分、青贮发酵品质及其相关性. 草地学报, 2022, 30(6): 1525-1533.
全株小麦(Triticum aestivum)具有较高的饲用价值,已经成为一些国家或地区重要的粗饲料资源。为筛选出适宜广东冬闲田种植的高产优质小麦品种,选取24个小麦品种种植到华南地区的冬闲田,研究其全株产量、营养成分、青贮品质以及青贮品质与营养成分间的相关性。参试的24个小麦品种干物质产量在5.20~9.81 t·hm<sup>-2</sup>之间,粗蛋白产量在0.40~0.85 t·hm<sup>-2</sup>之间,其中‘石麦1号’、‘川麦61’和‘衡观35号’的干物质产量高于其他品种,‘石麦1号’的相对饲用价值最高,‘川麦61’和‘衡观35号’的相对饲用价值显著低于‘石麦1号’。干物质产量与种子千粒重呈显著正相关(PPPPP<0.05)。基于对24个小麦品种产量和营养的评价,‘石麦1号’和‘衡观35号’适合广东冬闲田种植。
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孙浩, 卢家顶, 史莹华, 等. 全株小麦青贮在动物生产中的应用及前景. 草业科学, 2022, 39(11): 2453-2465.
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倪印锋, 王明利. 中国牧草产业地理集聚特征及影响因素. 经济地理, 2018, 38(6): 142-150.
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成广雷, 邱军, 王晓光, 等. 我国青贮玉米组合(品种)的农艺性状、生物产量和品质变化. 中国农业科技导报, 2022, 24(4): 30-37.
青贮玉米以其特有的优势居于现代农业的重要位置。系统分析了2003—2019年累计394个参加国家玉米品种区域试验青贮玉米组合(品种)的农艺性状、生物产量和品质的变化,为未来中国青贮玉米产业发展和品种选育提供依据和参考。结果表明:①2003—2019年参试青贮玉米组合(品种)的生育期平均为111.8 d,春播组合(品种)平均为109.3 d,比夏播组合(品种)长9.7 d,春播组合(品种)生育期呈延长趋势,而夏播组合(品种)呈缩短趋势;②参试青贮玉米组合(品种)的平均株高和穗位高分别为300.5和132.3 cm,2003—2019年株高和穗位高呈升高趋势,近10年株高增加了12.5 cm,而穗位高仅增加了2.1 cm;③参试青贮玉米组合(品种)生物产量平均为19 477.5 kg DW·hm<sup>-2</sup>,2003—2019年呈先降低后升高趋势,2011—2019年较2003—2010年增加了721.8 kg·hm<sup>-2</sup>;④参试青贮玉米组合(品种)的平均中性洗涤纤维(NDF)和酸性洗涤纤维(ADF)含量分别为46.7%和21.5%,2003—2019年呈先升高后逐年降低趋势,2011—2019年NDF和ADF含量分别较2003—2010年降低了6.8和5.5个百分点;⑤参试青贮玉米组合(品种)的粗蛋白含量平均为8.7%,年际间变幅较小,全株淀粉含量平均为31.0%(2014—2019年),呈逐年升高和集中趋势。连续17年国家青贮玉米品种区域试验分析结果表明,青贮玉米组合(品种)春播生育期呈延长趋势、夏播则逐步缩短;株高增加,但穗位高变化不大;品质改良取得显著成效,NDF和ADF含量显著降低,淀粉含量明显提升,粗蛋白含量保持稳定;生物产量整体有所提升。
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杨劲松, 姚荣江, 王相平, 等. 中国盐渍土研究: 历程、现状与展望. 土壤学报, 2022, 59(1): 10-27.
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