
水—能源—粮食纽带关系若干问题解析
Analysis on issues of water-energy-food nexus
水、能源、粮食均为战略性、基础性资源,三者之间相互关联,彼此制约,深刻影响着人类的生产、生活和生态环境。通过梳理水—能源—粮食纽带关系领域的研究内容、研究方法、研究尺度等,进一步明确了变化环境影响下水—能源—粮食纽带关系概念框架及其风险关系的传递与表达,指出当前对水—能源—粮食纽带关系理解尚未统一,广泛采用的有“联系论”和“方法论”。现有研究对水—能源—粮食纽带关系进行了现状评估,资源间相互消耗关系的量化与不同情景下的仿真模拟。研究中存在数据缺失、不一致,评估因素单一,缺少动态反馈机制,难以真正应用到政策调控中等问题。因此,数据整合、模型集成、风险评估与动态调节、提高韧性、城市尺度研究和智慧管理,均是水—能源—粮食纽带关系发展关注的重点领域。
Water, energy and food are indispensable resources in production and life. They are closely linked and mutually restricted, but their spatial distribution is not harmonious. Affected by climate change, economic and social change, the production and life are restricted. By sorting out the research contents, methods, scales of the WEF Nexus, the comprehensive conceptual framework of WEF Nexus and the transmission and expression of its risk relationship under the influence of changing environment are clarified. In the comprehensive conceptual framework, water, energy and food are regarded as the core of the WEF Nexus, and the influencing factors and potential risks of the water-energy-food system are regarded as the extension of the nexus. This paper points out that the definition of WEF Nexus has not been unified, and "connectionism" and "methodology" are two common explanations. The existing studies have assessed the status of the WEF Nexus, quantified the consumption relationship between resources and simulated it under different economic, social and climate scenarios. Status assessment includes safety, pressure, efficiency, resilience, and sustainability. There are some problems in the current research of WEF Nexus. Data missing and inconsistency hinder the calculation. Only one or several factors are considered in the application of the model, which can not fully describe the complexity of the system. Dynamic feedback research is limited by data and quantitative methods. Existing research is difficult to really apply to policy control. Therefore, monitoring, collection and integration of data, exploration of standardization model and establishment of multi-factor integration tool, system risk assessment and dynamic adjustment, resilience improvement, urban scale research and smart management are all the focus of attention in the development of the WEF Nexus.
水—能源—粮食; / 纽带关系 / 概念框架 / 量化评估 / 模拟预测 {{custom_keyword}} /
water-energy-food / nexus / conceptual framework / quantitative evaluation / simulation and prediction {{custom_keyword}} /
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