自然资源学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 2980-2994.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201213

• 其他研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于贝叶斯网络的生态用地流失机制研究

郑涛1,2,3(), 陈爽1(), 张童1,2, 徐丽婷1,2, 马丽雅1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京 210008
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3.华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-14 修回日期:2019-08-22 出版日期:2020-12-28 发布日期:2020-12-18
  • 作者简介:郑涛(1994- ),男,江苏溧阳人,硕士,研究方向为城市土地利用及其生态效应。E-mail: zhengtao16@mails.ucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41771140);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23020101);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20181105)

Research on driving mechanism of ecological land loss based on Bayesian network

ZHENG Tao1,2,3(), CHEN Shuang1(), ZHANG Tong1,2, XU Li-ting1,2, MA Li-ya1,2   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2019-05-14 Revised:2019-08-22 Online:2020-12-28 Published:2020-12-18

摘要:

从中微观尺度对城市滨江地区生态用地流失进行驱动因素分析,尤其将政策规划等具有重要影响力的因子进行量化分析,可为生态用地开发与保护政策制定提供参考。利用贝叶斯网络模型综合考虑导致生态用地流失的邻域因子、自然因子和政策规划因子,以良好的图形描述方法较为清晰地展示出生态用地变化及其驱动因子之间的过程关系。以南京滨江地区作为典型案例区,研究结果表明:(1)2005—2018年间,南京滨江地区约11.0%的生态用地发生流失,维持稳定的生态用地占比89.0%;(2)政策规划保护力是影响南京滨江地区生态用地流失的主要驱动因素,城镇扩张惯性力次之,二者对生态用地流失的敏感性分别为9.37%和2.53%,而开发阻力的敏感性仅为0.21%;(3)在政策规划因子中,沿江岸线规划对维持生态用地稳定性的作用效果高于土地利用规划,表明要使生态空间得以长期存在,应制定基于生态用地功能目标的保护政策。

关键词: 生态用地, 贝叶斯网络, 驱动机制, 南京

Abstract:

From the micro perspective, the driving factors of ecological land loss in urban riverside area are analyzed, especially based on the quantitative analysis of the factors with crucial influences such as policy and planning, which has important reference significance for the formulation of ecological land protection policies. In this paper, the Bayesian network model is used to integrate the neighborhood factors, natural factors, policy and planning factors that lead to ecological land loss. And the relationship between ecological land change and its driving factors is clearly illustrated by a good graphical description method. The research results show that from 2005 to 2018, about 11.0% of the ecological land in Nanjing riverside area is lost, and the stable proportion of ecological land is 89.0%. The sensitivity of ecological land protection intensity to ecological land loss is as high as 9.37%, the sensitivity of construction potential factor is 2.53%, and the sensitivity of development difficulty is only 0.21%. The effect of shoreline planning is better than that of land use planning, which indicates that the protection policy based on the function goal of ecological land should be made to ensure the long-term existence of ecological space.

Key words: ecological land, Bayesian network, driving mechanism, Nanjing