中国高速铁路的快速建设,对国内民航客运的发展产生了较大的影响。基于事后分析视角,从直达联系视角建立了国内高铁—民航运输的空间叠合网络,定量分析了高铁建设前后民航旅客运输的变化特征,并基于航空客流增速变化识别出高铁影响下的四种航段类型及其空间分布。在此基础上,基于2007-2014年全国277对高铁—民航运输重叠城市对的8年面板数据,以航空客流为因变量,建立随机效应模型,研究了高速铁路介入后对国内民航客运系统、北上广枢纽机场以及其他机场航线的替代效应。结论表明：（1）高速铁路对重叠网络的民航旅客运输产生了较强的替代效应,且高铁列车速度越快、城市间距离越短,替代效应越明显。（2）由于航班网络联系的多元化、旅客出行偏好选择以及对时间敏感性不同,枢纽机场航线较非枢纽机场航线受高铁建设的影响相对较小。未来随着高铁网络的进一步完善,其对航空客运的影响仍值得持续关注。
Abstract
The construction of high-speed rail in China improves the comprehensive transportation systems significantly, while challenging the development of domestic air transportation at the same time. Based on the timetable data from 2007 to 2014, the overlapping market of HSR and air network is identified from the perspective of direct connection between city pairs. In 2007, the overlappping network only had 21 city pairs with direct flights and high-speed trains, and the number dramatically increased to 277 in 2014. This paper first analyzes the potential influence of HSR development on airlines and its spatial distribution. Then, a random effect regression model is established to measure the ex-post effects of the entry of HSR on air passenger flows of all the 277 city-pairs, among which, 94 city-pairs connected with the three hub cities, and 183 city-pairs connected with other feeder airports in China. The results are as follows: (1) Despite the fact that HSR and air transportation systems in China are developing in parallel, the entry of HSR has caused a modal shift from air transportation. The reduction on air travel demand caused by G trains is more obvious than that of D trains. (2) The air travel demand between inter-cities within the same or nearby provinces decreases sharply. (3) Distance, GDP, and rank of airports are significant positive factors in increasing air travel demand. (4) Due to various flight networks, preference for air transport, and sensitivity to travel time in hub cities, city pairs connected with Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou are more competitive for air transportation than for HSR.
关键词
运输竞争 /
叠合网络 /
高速铁路 /
时刻表 /
民航客运
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
air passenger transport /
timetable /
high-speed rail (HSR) /
overlapping network /
inter-modal competition
{{custom_keyword}} /
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] PARK Y, HA H K.Analysis of the impact of high-speed railroad service on air transport demand. Transportation Research Part E Logistics & Transportation Review, 2006, 42(2): 95-104.
[2] CASCETTA E, PAPOLA A, PAGLIARA F, et al.Analysis of mobility impacts of the high-speed Rome-Naples rail link using within day dynamic mode service choice models. Journal of Transport Geography, 2011, 19(4): 635-643.
[3] LEE J K, YOO K E, SONG K H.A study on travelers' transport mode choice behavior using the mixed logit model: A case study of the Seoul-Jeju route. Journal of Air Transport Management, 2016, 56: 131-137.
[4] LI Z C, SHENG D.Forecasting passenger travel demand for air and high-speed rail integration service: A case study of Beijing-Guangzhou corridor, China. Transportation Research Part A, 2016, 94(1): 397-410.
[5] 丁金学, 金凤君, 王姣娥, 等. 高铁与民航的竞争博弈及其空间效应: 以京沪高铁为例. 经济地理, 2013, 33(5): 104-110.
[DING J X, JIN F J, WANG J E, et al.Competition game of high-speed rail and civil aviation and its spatial effect: A case study of Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Rail. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(5): 104-110.]
[6] 彭峥, 胡华清. 高速铁路对航空运输市场的影响分析. 综合运输, 2009, (7): 70-75.
[PENG Z, HU H Q.Effects of high-speed train on air transportation. Comprehensive Transportation, 2009, (7): 70-75.]
[7] 张旭, 栾维新, 赵冰茹. 基于非集计模型的武广线高铁与民航竞争研究. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2012, 12(6): 17-21.
[ZHANG X, LUAN W X, ZHAO B R.Competition between Wuhan-Guangzhou High-speed Railway and civil aviation based on disaggregate model. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering & Information Technology, 2012, 12(6): 17-21.]
[8] JIANG C, ZHANG A.Airline network choice and market coverage under high-speed rail competition. Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice, 2016, 92: 248-260.
[9] MOSHE G.Development and impact of the modern high-speed train: A review. Transport Reviews, 2006, 26(5): 593-611.
[10] GIVONI M, DOBRUSZKES F.A review of ex-Post evidence for mode substitution and induced demand following the introduction of high-speed rail. Transport Reviews, 2013, 33(6): 720-742.
[11] ADLER N, PELS E, NASH C.High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis. Transportation Research Part B Methodological, 2008, 44(7): 812-833.
[12] CLEWLOW R R, SUSSMAN J M, BALAKRISHNAN H.The impact of high-speed rail and low-cost carriers on European air passenger traffic. Transport Policy, 2014, 33(2): 136-143.
[13] DOBRUSZKES F.High-speed rail and air transport competition in Western Europe: A supply-oriented perspective. Transport Policy, 2011, 18(6): 870-879.
[14] DOBRUSZKES F, DEHON C, GIVONI M.Does European high-speed rail affect the current level of air services? An EU-wide analysis. Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice, 2014, 69(69): 461-475.
[15] ALBALATE D, BEL G, FAGEDA X.Competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and air transportation services in Europe. Journal of Transport Geography, 2015, 42: 166-174.
[16] 孙枫, 汪德根, 牛玉. 高速铁路与汽车和航空的竞争格局分析. 地理研究, 2017, 36(1): 171-187.
[SUN F, WANG D G, NIU Y.Competition patterns of high-speed rail versus highways and aviation. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(1): 171-187.]
[17] 王姣娥, 胡浩. 中国高铁与民航的空间服务市场竞合分析与模拟. 地理学报, 2013, 68(2): 175-185.
[WANG J E, HU H.Competition and cooperation of high-speed rail and air transport in China: A perspective from spatial service market view. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(2): 175-185.]
[18] WAN Y, HA H K, YOSHIDA Y, et al.Airlines' reaction to high-speed rail entries: Empirical study of the Northeast Asian market. Transportation Research Part A: Policy & Practice, 2016, 94: 532-557.
[19] ZHANG Q, YANG H, WANG Q.Impact of high-speed rail on China's Big Three Airlines. Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice, 2017, 98: 77-85.
[20] CHEN Z.Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air transportation in China. Journal of Transport Geography, 2017, 64: 184-196.
[21] GIVONI M. Development and impact of the modern high‐speed train: A review. Transport Reviews, 2006,26(5): 593-611. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640600589319.
[22] YANG H, BURGHOUWT G, WANG J, et al.The implications of high-speed railways on air passenger flows in China. Applied Geography, 2018, 97: 1-9.
[23] 王姣娥, 金凤君, 孙炜, 等. 中国机场体系的空间格局及其服务水平, 地理学报, 2006, 61(8): 829-838.
[WANG J E, JIN F J, SUN W, et al.Research on spatial distribution and service level of Chinese airport system. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(8): 829-838.]
[24] WANG J, MO H, JIN F, et al.Exploring the network structure and nodal centrality of China's air transport network: A complex network approach. Journal of Transport Geography, 2011, 19(4): 712-721.
[25] FU X, ZHANG A, LEI Z.Will China's airline industry survive the entry of highspeed rail?. Research in Transportation Economics, 2012, 35(1): 13-25.
[26] WAN Y, HA H K, YOSHIDA Y, et al.Airlines' reaction to high-speed rail entries: Empirical study of the Northeast Asian market. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2016, 94: 532-557.
[27] ALBALATE D, BEL G, FAGEDA X.Competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and air transportation services in Europe. Journal of Transport Geography, 2015, 42: 16-174.
[28] JIMENEZ J L, BETANCOR O.When trains go faster than planes: The strategic reaction of airlines in Spain. Transport Policy, 2012, 23: 34-41.
[29] CASTILLO-MANZANO J I, POZO-BARAJAS R, TRAPERO J R. Measuring the substitution effects between high speed rail and air transport in Spain. Journal of Transport Geography, 2015, 43: 59-65.
[30] CLEVER R, HANSEN M.Interaction of air and high-speed rail in Japan. Transportation Research Record, 2008, 2043: 1-12.
{{custom_fnGroup.title_cn}}
脚注
{{custom_fn.content}}
基金
国家自然科学基金项目（41722103）
{{custom_fund}}
PDF(2020 KB)
AI Summary
