2007&#x02014;2016年上海市暴雨特征及其与内涝灾情关系分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20180559

PDF(8895 KB)

自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12) : 2136-2148. DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20180559

资源评价

2007—2016年上海市暴雨特征及其与内涝灾情关系分析

李海宏^{1, 2}, 吴吉东^{1, *}

作者信息 +

Rainstorm Characteristics and Its Relationship with Waterlogging Disaster in Shanghai during 2007-2016

LI Hai-hong^{1, 2}, WU Ji-dong¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

利用上海市30个自动气象站2007—2016年逐小时降水数据和上海市应急联动平台110接报内涝灾情数据,分析了近10 a上海市暴雨和内涝灾情特征,并进一步研究致灾暴雨过程与内涝灾情的关系。结果表明：1）上海市暴雨空间分布反映了明显的城市雨岛特征,在水汽充沛的东部沿海和城市化水平较高的中心城区相对容易出现极端雨强;2）暴雨内涝灾情年变化较大,月分布呈单峰型,日分布呈双峰型,且内涝灾情数在中心城区及各区中心较为密集,反映了承灾体的空间分布特征;3）暴雨过程对内涝灾情的贡献作用明显,内涝灾情数与暴雨过程雨量、逐小时最大雨量和最大雨强显著相关,与持续时间和影响站次低度相关;4）逐小时最大雨量等于过程雨量且<60 mm20="">100 mm时,灾情数急剧增加。暴雨特征与内涝灾情关系研究对于暴雨内涝的预报、预警和服务具有重要意义。

Abstract

Based on hourly precipitation data of 30 automatic weather stations in Shanghai during 2007-2016 and 110 alert phone calls from the Shanghai Emergency Linkage Platform, the distribution characteristics of rainstorm and waterlogging disaster in Shanghai in the past ten years were analyzed using the methods of statistics and GIS, and the relationship between disastrous rainstorm processes and waterlogging disaster were further studied. The results indicate that: 1) The spatial distribution of rainstorm days in Shanghai reflected the urban rain-island effect, and extreme hourly rainfall intensity was relatively prone to occur on the eastern coast where the vapor is abundant and in the central urban districts where the level of urbanization is high. 2) The annual variation of waterlogging disasters was big. The monthly distribution curve of waterlogging disasters showed a single peak, and the daily distribution was double peaks. Waterlogging disasters are densely concentrated in the central urban region and the centers of districts, which reflecting the spatial characteristics of the disaster bearing body. 3) The rainstorm process had a significant contribution to the waterlogging disasters. The number of waterlogging disasters was significantly related to the process rainfall, maximum hourly rainfall and maximum hourly rainfall intensity and was less related to the duration and the affected stations. 4) When the maximum hourly rainfall was equal to the process rainfall and the process rainfall was less than 60 mm, the number of waterlogging disasters was less than 20, however, the waterlogging disasters increased dramatically as the process rainfall increased gradually, especially when the process rainfall exceeded 100 mm. This study on the relationship between rainstorm characteristics and waterlogging disaster is of great significance for disaster forecasting, warning and service.

导出引用

李海宏, 吴吉东. 2007—2016年上海市暴雨特征及其与内涝灾情关系分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(12): 2136-2148 https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20180559

LI Hai-hong, WU Ji-dong. Rainstorm Characteristics and Its Relationship with Waterlogging Disaster in Shanghai during 2007-2016[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(12): 2136-2148 https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20180559

中图分类号： P426.616

参考文献

[1] 林建, 杨贵名. 近30年中国暴雨时空分布特征[J]. 气象, 2014, 40(7): 816-826.
[LIN J, YANG G M.Spatio-temporal characteristics of rainstorm in China during 1981-2010. Meteorological Monthly, 2014, 40(7): 816-826. ]
[2] LIU R, LIU S C, R J CICERONE, et al. Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 32(8): 1027-1037.
[3] 王光明, 廖玉芳, 曾向红, 等. 湖南短历时暴雨雨型分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2017, 36(1): 86-90.
[WANG G M, LIAO Y F, ZENG X H, et al.The analysis of the short-duration rainstorm pattern over Hunan Province. Torrential Rain and Disaster, 2017, 36(1): 86-90. ]
[4] 李天杰. 上海市区城市化对降水的影响初探[J]. 水文, 1995, 15(3): 34-41.
[LI T J.The influence exploration of urbanization on precipitation in Shanghai center area. Journal of China Hydrology, 1995, 15(3): 34-41. ]
[5] 周丽英, 杨凯. 上海降水百年变化趋势及其城郊的差异[J]. 地理学报, 2001, 56(4): 467-476.
[ZHOU L Y, YANG K.Variation of precipitation in Shanghai during the last one hundred years and precipitation differences between city and suburb. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 56(4): 467-476. ]
[6] 贺芳芳, 徐家良. 20世纪90年代以来上海市降水资源变化研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(2): 210-216.
[HE F F, XU J L.Studies on precipitation resource change in Shanghai since the 1990s. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006, 21(2): 210-216. ]
[7] 宁静, 李田. 城市化效应对上海短历时设计暴雨强度的影响[J]. 中国给水排水, 2007, 23(15): 51-57.
[NING J, LI T.Influence of urbanization effect on short duration design rainstorm intensity in Shanghai. China Water & Wastewater, 2007, 23(15): 51-57. ]
[8] 曹琨, 葛朝霞, 薛梅, 等. 上海城区雨岛效应及其变化趋势分析[J]. 水电能源科学, 2009, 27(5): 31-34.
[CAO K, GE Z X, XUE M, et al.Analysis of urban rain island effect in Shanghai and its changing trend. Water Resources and Power, 2009, 27(5): 31-34. ]
[9] 贺芳芳, 赵兵科. 近30年上海市暴雨的气候变化特征[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(11): 1260-1267.
[HE F F, ZHAO B K.The characteristics of climate change of torrential rains in Shanghai region in recent 30 years. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(11): 1260-1267. ]
[10] 殷健, 梁珊珊. 城市化对上海市区降水的影响[J]. 水文, 2010, 30(2): 66-72.
[YIN J, LIANG S S.Influence of urbanization on regional precipitation in Shanghai City. Journal of China Hydrology, 2010, 30(2): 66-72. ]
[11] 梁萍, 丁一汇, 何金海, 等. 上海地区城市化速度与降水空间分布变化的关系研究[J]. 热带气象学报, 2011, 27(4): 475-483.
[LIANG P, DING Y H, HE J H, et al.Study of relationship between urbanization speed and change of spatial distribution of rainfall over Shanghai. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2011, 27(4): 475-483. ]
[12] 房国良, 高原, 徐连军, 等. 上海市降雨变化与灾害性降雨特征分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2012, 21(10): 1270-1273.
[FANG G L, GAO Y, XU L J, et al.Analysis of precipitation change and the characteristics of disaster rainfalls in Shanghai. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2012, 21(10): 1270-1273. ]
[13] 徐卫忠, 史军, 徐家良. 上海短历时设计暴雨强度的时空分布特征[J]. 上海水务, 2013, 29(2): 1-4.
[XU W Z, SHI J, XU J L.The spatio-temporal distribution of short duration design rainstorm intensity in Shanghai. Shanghai Water, 2013, 29(2): 1-4. ]
[14] 顾问, 谈建国, 常远勇. 1981—2013年上海市强降水事件特征分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2015, 31(6): 107-114.
[GU W, TAN J G, CHANG Y Y.Characteristics of heavy rainfall events in Shanghai region from 1981 to 2013. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2015, 31(6): 107-114. ]
[15] 高洁, 漆梁波. 上海市短时强降水特点及其影响[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2015, 38(3): 52-60.
[GAO J, QI L B.Characteristics and influence of short duration heavy rainfall in Shanghai. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 38(3): 52-60. ]
[16] 王轩, 尹占娥, 迟潇潇, 等. 气候变化下上海市降水问题[J]. 热带地理, 2015, 35(3): 324-333.
[WANG X, YIN Z E, CHI X X, et al.Precipitation in Shanghai under climate change. Tropical Geography, 2015, 35(3): 324-333. ]
[17] 王轩, 尹占娥, 迟潇潇, 等. 1961—2010年上海市各量级降水的多尺度变化特征研究[J]. 地球环境学报, 2015, 6(3): 161-167.
[WANG X, YIN Z E, CHI X X, et al.Characteristics of different magnitude precipitation change in Shanghai during 1961-2010. Journal of Earth Environment, 2015, 6(3): 161-167. ]
[18] 张赟程. 2003 —2015年上海地区夏季午后短时强降水特征[J]. 绿色科技, 2016(14): 38-41.
[ZHANG Y C. Characteristics of short-time rainfall in Shanghai region in the summer afternoon from 2003 to 2015. Journal Green Science and Technology, 2016(14): 38-41. ]
[19] 史军, 穆海振, 杨涵洧, 等. 上海中心城区暴雨内涝阈值研究[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2016, 35(4): 344-350.
[SHI J, MU H Z, YANG H W, et al.Study on the threshold of rainstorm waterlogging in the urban areas of Shanghai. Torrential Rain and Disaster, 2016, 35(4): 344-350. ]
[20] 李云. 浅议浦东新区近年降雨特征及其灾害[J]. 上海水务, 2017, 33(3): 16-19.
[LI Y.Analysis about the precipitation features and disasters in Pudong New Area during the recent years. Shanghai Water, 2017, 33(3): 16-19. ]
[21] 贺芳芳. 1980年代以来上海市暴雨的气候变化特征[C]// 第六届海峡论坛·海峡两岸民生气象论坛文集. 厦门, 2014: 196-209.
[HE F F.The climate change characteristics of heavy rainfall in Shanghai since the 1980s // The 6th Straits Forum and the Cross-strait People's Livelihood Meteorological Forum Collection. Xiamen, 2014: 196-209. ]
[22] 贺芳芳, 杨涵洧, 穆海振, 等. 上海地区短历时强降水致灾阈值探索[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(6): 1567-1575.
[HE F F, YANG H W, MU H Z, et al.The exploratory research of thresholds value causing urban waterlogging of short diachronic strong precipitation in Shanghai. Plateau Meteorology, 2017, 36(6): 1567-1575. ]
[23] 上海市气象局. 上海市气象灾害预警信号及防御指引 [EB/OL]. http://www.smb.gov.cn/sh/yjgl/qxxw/yjfyzy/infodetail/fb5ae11b-4d46-4531-a1cc-528846e7bf2a.html, 2014.
[Shanghai Meteorological Service.Warning signals and defense guidelines for meteorological disasters in Shanghai. http://www.smb.gov.cn/sh/yjgl/qxxw/yjfyzy/infodetail/fb5ae11b-4d46-4531-a1cc-528846e7bf2a.html, 2014. ]
[24] GB/T28592—2012. 降水量等级[S].
[GB/T28592-2012. Precipitation level.]
[25] IPCC. Climate change 2014: Synthesis Report[M]. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization, 2014.
[26] 程江, 杨凯, 刘兰岚, 等. 上海中心城区土地利用变化对区域降雨径流的影响研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(6): 914-925.
[CHENG J, YANG K, LIU L L, et al.Impact of 60 years land use change on rainfall-runoff in central Shanghai. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(6): 914-925. ]
[27] 陈秀洪, 刘丙军, 陈刚. 城市化建设对降水特征的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(9): 1591-1601.
[CHEN X H, LIU B J, CHEN G.Effects of urbanization on precipitation characteristics. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(9): 1591-1601. ]