
水资源利用发展路径构建及应用
Building and Application of Water Resources Use Development Path
文章基于水资源利用与经济和社会发展关系的认识,应用不同国家和地区数据构建了水资源利用发展路径,并以此为依据评价了中国1980—2014年水资源利用发展过程和大陆各省1993、2000和2011年水资源利用水平。水资源利用呈现阶段性特点,在经济发展从低收入向中低收入、中高收入和高收入的发展过程中,农业用水比重从极高下降到较低水平,人均生活用水量逐步增加,单位工业用水量显著下降,水生产效益显著提高,供水人口实现全覆盖。中国水资源利用发展过程受经济和社会发展影响明显,工业用水比重过大,人均生活用水量偏低,并滞后于经济发展。各省水资源利用呈现显著差异,但滞后于经济发展的省份占大多数。
The paper, based on relationship between water resources use and socio-economic development, develops the water resources use development path by applying water use data from different economic entities; and applies the established path to assess the water resources use development processes since 1980 for China and its provinces.
The water use development process has a clear path. The path can be explained by water indicators including water use structure, water productivity, domestic water use per capita, water use per GDP, water use per industrial value-added, and population ratio access to clean water supply. These indicators display changes of the economic development of different economic entities from low income, lower middle income and upper middle income to high income. During this development process, the agricultural water use percentage decreases grammatically from more than 90% to about 40%; the domestic water use per capita increases gradually from 80 L/d to 380 L/d; the water use per industrial value-added decreases significantly; the water productivity increases greatly from less than 2
Although on the same development way with those international economies, there exist biases of some water use development indicators in China since 1980 resulted from the unbalanced social and economic development. More secondary industries and lagged development of urbanization and tertiary industry caused higher industrial water use and lower domestic water use per capita. Therefore, the water use development in China is behind the economic development in general.
The provinces demonstrate significant regional differences. There are more provinces with water use development lagging behind economic development. The water use data in 1993, 2000 and 2011 show that the provinces with water use development lagging behind economic development are suffered from lower water use, lower domestic water use per capita, and/or lower water productivity. Beijing is the only province that the water use development goes ahead the social and economic development all the time. Therefore, the key task for water sector in China is to make the development of water use catch up with the economic development.
发展路径 / 水资源利用 / 用水结构和指标 {{custom_keyword}} /
development path / water use indicator / water resources use {{custom_keyword}} /
[1] NAKICENOVIC N, ALCAMO J, DAVIS G,et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [M]. IPCC, 2000.
[2] DIETZ T, ROSA E A, YORK R. Driving the human ecological footprint [J]. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2007, 5: 13-18.
[3] 李强, 王莉芳, 贾晓猛. 基于EKC的水资源利用与经济增长关系研究 [J]. 科技和产业, 2015, 15(4): 133-136, 142. [ LI Q, WANG L F, JIA X M. Research on the relationship between water resources utilization and economic growth based on EKC. Science Technology and Industry, 2015, 15(4): 133-136,142. ]
[4] 张陈俊, 章恒全. 新环境库兹涅次曲线:工业用水与经济增长的关系 [J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(5): 116-123. [ZHANG C J, ZHANG H Q. A new environmental Kuznets Curve: relationship between industrial water use and economic growth. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(5): 116-123. ]
[5] 刘渝, 杜江, 张俊飚. 中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说及验证 [J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(4): 593-597. [LIU Y, DU J, ZHANG J B. Hypothesis and validation on the Kuznets Curve of agricultural water use and economic growth. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2008, 17(4): 593-597. ]
[6] 贾绍凤, 张士锋, 杨红, 等. 工业用水与经济发展的关系——用水库兹涅茨曲线 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2004, 19(3): 279-284. [JIA S F, ZHANG S F, YANG H, et al. Relation of industrial water use and economic development: Water use Kuznets Curve. Journal of Natural Resources, 2004, 19(3): 279-284. ]
[7] 吴丹. 中国经济发展与水资源利用脱钩态势评价与展望 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(1): 46-54. [WU D. Evaluation and prospect on the decoupling trend of economic development and water resource utilization in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(1): 46-54. ]
[8] 吴丹. 中国经济发展与水资源利用的演变态势、“脱钩”评价与机理分析——以中美对比分析为例 [J]. 河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2016, 18(1): 47-53, 90-91. [WU D. An analysis of evolution trend and decoupling evaluation mechanism of economic development and water resource utilization in China based on comparative analysis of China and America. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2016,18(1): 47-53, 90-91. ]
[9] 游海霞, 岳金桂. 江苏省水资源利用与经济发展脱钩分析 [J]. 水利经济, 2015, 33(6): 7-13, 79. [YOU H X, YUE J G. Decoupling analysis of water resources and economic development in Jiangsu Province. Journal of Economics and Water Resources, 2015, 33(6): 7-13, 79. ]
[10] 潘安娥, 陈丽. 湖北省水资源利用与经济协调发展脱钩分析——基于水足迹视角 [J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(2): 328-333. [PAN A E, CHEN L. Decoupling and water footprint analysis of the coordinated development between water utilization and the economy in Hubei. Resources Science, 2014, 36(2): 328-333. ]
[11] 杨仁发, 汪涛武. 江西省水资源利用与经济协调发展脱钩分析——基于虚拟水的视角 [J]. 科技管理研究, 2015(20): 95-98, 111. [YANG R F, WANG T W. Decoupling relationship analysis of the coordinated development between water utilization and economy growth in Jiangxi based on virtual water theory. Science and Technology Management Research, 2015(20): 95-98, 111. ]
[12] 刘晨跃, 高志刚. 新疆经济发展与水资源消耗脱钩态势研究 [J]. 唐山学院学报, 2015, 28(1): 42-45. [LIU C Y, GAO Z G. A research into decoupling trend between Xinjiang’s economic development and water resources utilization. Journal of Tangshan College, 2015, 28(1): 42-45. ]
[13] 朱洪利, 潘丽君, 李巍, 等. 十年来云贵两省水资源利用与经济发展脱钩关系研究 [J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2013, 11(5): 1-5. [ZHU H L, PAN L J, LI W, et al. Decoupling relationship between water use and economic development in Yunnan and Guizhou provinces during the first ten years of the great western development strategy. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2013, 11(5): 1-5. ]
[14] 雷玉桃, 苏莉. 广东省工业用水与经济发展的脱钩态势分析 [J]. 水利科技与经济, 2015, 21(10): 1-4. [LEI Y T, SU L. Decoupling relationship between industrial water use and economic development in Guangdong Province.Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy, 2015, 21(10): 1-4. ]
[15] 傅春, 杨志峰, 刘昌明. 水利现代化的内涵及评价指标体系的建立 [J]. 水科学进展, 2002, 13(4): 502-506. [FU C, YANG Z F, LIU C M. Connotation and evaluation index system for water conservancy modernization. Advances in Water Sciences, 2002, 13(4): 502-506. ]
[16] 陶长生. 水利现代化及其指标体系研究 [D]. 南京: 河海大学, 2001. [TAO C S. The Study on Water Conservancy Modernization with Index System and Assessment Methods. Nanjing: Hohai University, 2001. ]
[17] 中国水利现代化研究课题组. 中国水利现代化的内涵及其评价指标体系 [J]. 中国水利, 2004(4): 31-34. [Research Group on China Water Conservancy Modernization. The contents and assessment index of China’s water conservancy modernization. China Water Resources, 2004(4): 31-34. ]
[18] 刘昌明, 汪松年, 等. 上海郊区水利现代化指标体系研究 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2005. [LIU C M, WANG S N, et al. Research on Water Sector Modernization Index of Suburb Shanghai. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2005. ]
[19] 姚凯文, 徐义平, 等. 湖北省农村水利现代化指标体系研究 [R]. 北京: 华北电力大学, 2006. [YAO K W, XU Y P, et al. Research on rural water sector modernization index in Hubei Province. Beijing: North China Electric Power University, 2006. ]
[20] 张海涛, 谢新民, 杨丽丽. 水利现代化评价指标体系与评价方法研究 [J]. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2010, 8(2): 107-113. [ZHANG H T, XIE X M, YANG L L. Study on evaluation index system and evaluation method for water modernization in China. Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 2010, 8(2): 107-113. ]
[21] 王亚华, 黄译萱. 中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望 [J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2012, 22(6): 120-127. [WANG Y H, HUANG Y X. Evaluation and prospect of China’s water conservancy modernization process. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012, 22(6): 120-127. ]
[22] GOKLANY I M. Comparing 20th century trends in US and Global agricultural water and land use [J]. Water International, 2002, 27(3): 321-329.
[23] DUARTE R, PINILLA V, SERRANO A. Looking backward to look forward: water use and economic growth from a long-term perspective [J]. Applied Economics, 2014, 46(2): 212-224.
[24] COLE M A. Economic growth and water use [J]. Applied Economics Letters, 2004, 11(1): 1-4.
[25] KATZ D L. Water, Economic Growth, and Conflict: Three Studies [D]. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 2004.
[26] TELLO E, OSTOS J R. Water consumption in Barcelona and its regional environmental imprint: A long-term history (1717-2008) [J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2012, 12(2): 347-361.
[27] 水利电力部水利水电规划设计院. 中国水资源利用 [M]. 北京: 水利电力出版社, 1989. [Institute of Planing and Design of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Ministry of Water Conservancy and Hydropower. Utilization of Water Resources in China. Beijing: Water Conservancy and Power Press, 1989. ]
[28] 水利部南京水文水资源研究所, 中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所. 21世纪中国水供求 [M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 1999. [Nanjing Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Ministry of Water Resources, Institute of Water Resources Research, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research. Water Supply and Demand of China in the 21st Century. Beijing: China WaterPower Press, 1999. ]
[29] 水利部. 中国水资源公报 [M]. 1997—2014. [Ministry of Water Resources. China Water Resources Bulletin. 1997-2014. ]
国家社会科学基金(11AZD007); 国家科技重大专项(2013ZX07603-003-005)
/
〈 |
|
〉 |