探索城镇化演进的边际污染效应极限,对指导城镇化健康、可持续发展具有重要意义。论文以安徽省为例,选取工业废水等8项指标,采用熵权赋值法,对污染综合指数进行了评价;运用LMDI分解模型,对城镇化进程引致的污染效应进行了测算;基于经济学边际理论,构建了城镇化进程边际污染效应变化率模型,通过最佳拟合优度曲线估算及曲线拐点求导判别方法,对城镇化进程边际污染效应极限及演化趋势进行了测度,结果表明：1）污染综合指数由2000年的0.153 0上升至2012年的0.645 3;2）城镇化进程边际污染效应由2001年的0.006 3增至2012年的0.012 5,两者呈同向增长态势;3）2020年城镇化进程累计边际污染效应将达0.379;4）城镇化进程边际污染效应变化率曲线呈正N型,第一极值点出现于2004—2005年,第二极值点出现于2013年,目前,城镇化进程边际污染效应处于第二极值点右侧上升通道。论文基于城市发展理论对研究结果进行了机理解析,并从依靠科技创新、实现城镇化发展方式由要素驱动向创新驱动转变等4个方面提出了政策建议。

Exploring the limits of marginal pollution effect of urbanization has important significance in healthy and sustainable development of urbanization. Taking Anhui Province as an example, eight indicators are selected with entropy weight assignment method for evaluating comprehensive pollution indices. LMDI decomposition model is adopted to measure the pollution effect caused by urbanization. Based on the marginal theory in economics, the change rate model of marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization is established. Through the estimation of optimal goodness-of-fit curve and discrimination method of inflection point deri-vation, the limit and evolutionary trend of marginal pollution effect in the process of urbanization are measured. The results show that: 1) the comprehensive pollution index rose from 0.153 0 in 2000 to 0.645 3 in 2012, while the marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization increased from 0.006 3 in 2001 to 0.012 5 in 2012, and both show growing trends; 2) by 2020, the cumulative marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization will reach 0.379; 3) the change rate curve of marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization shows a positive N-shaped, of which the first and the second extreme points appeare in 2004-2005 and 2013 respectively. At present, the marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization is in the rising channel right to the second extreme point. Based on urban development theory, mechanism analysis is conducted on the research results. Meanwhile, four aspects of policy suggestions are proposed, such as relying on scientific and technological innovation to realize the transition of urbanization pattern from factor driving to innovation driving.