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甘肃河东玉米种植区春夏气象干旱时空变化特征及其与环流因子关系
季定民, 张勃, 王东, 马琼, 张耀宗, 赵一飞, Yousif Elnour Yagoub
自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9) : 1547-1559.
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甘肃河东玉米种植区春夏气象干旱时空变化特征及其与环流因子关系
Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Spring and Summer Meteorological Drought and Its Relationship with Circulation Factors in Hedong Maize Planting Areas of Gansu Province
甘肃河东玉米种植区属于旱作雨养农业区,农作物生长主要依靠自然降水来维持,春夏干旱是影响该区玉米生长发育的关键因素。利用河东地区13个气象站点1957—2012年气象资料,基于标准化降水蒸散指数从干旱趋势、周期、空间特征及其与环流因子关系方面探讨近56 a来河东玉米种植区春夏干旱演变特征。结果表明：近56 a河东玉米种植区春夏两季均呈干旱化趋势,并自20世纪90年代中期以后,干旱呈加重趋势。干旱变化共经历了3个气候阶段,20世纪80年代之前,春夏旱情较轻;80年代—90年代,夏旱较春旱严重;2000年以后,春旱较夏旱严重。干旱周期变化,春夏干旱周期分别为20 a和14 a,干旱周期性变化主要是受太阳黑子活动影响。春夏干旱发生频率在突变前后差异显著,低频区在突变后转为高频区,易旱区呈扩大状态。ENSO事件是影响该区春夏干旱发生的主要环流因子,尤其对夏旱影响最为显著。近20 a来ENSO事件增强是该区干旱事件不断加重的原因,ENSO暖事件爆发时,该区春夏趋于干旱,由湿向干转变;ENSO冷事件爆发,干旱则有所缓解,由干向湿转变。
Crop growth in Hedong rain fed agricultural region of Gansu Province mainly rely on the natural rain. Spring and summer drought is the main factor affecting the growth of maize. The monthly meteorological data of 13 meteorological stations in Hedong region from 1957 to 2012 were acquired. To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of spring and summer drought in Hedong maize planting areas, we used SPEI index to reveal the trend, cycle, spatial change of drought and its relation with circulation in recent 56 years. The results show that: Both the spring and summer season in Hedong maize planting areas become dryer in recent 56 years, and the situation was aggravating since the mid 1990s. The variation of drought underwent three phases. Both the spring and summer season were slightly arid before the 1980s. Summer droughts were more severe than spring drought from 1980s to 1990s. After 2000s, spring droughts were more severe than summer drought. The drought cycles of spring and summer are 20 years and 14 years respectively. The periodicities of drought were mainly affected by the sunspot. There was a significant difference in the spatial distribution of drought frequencies before and after SPEI mutation. Low drought frequency area transformed into high frequency area after the abrupt change of SPEI, and the draught prone areas expanded. The main circulation factor influencing spring and summer drought in this area was ENSO events, especially on summer drought. The significant increase of ENSO events were the main reason of more serious drought in Hedong region in recent 20 years. When ENSO warm events occur, it tends to be drought in spring and summer in this area; when ENSO cold events occur, it turns from dry to wet in spring and summer in this area.
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高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目（20136203110002）; 国家自然科学基金项目（40961038）; 生态经济学省级重点学科（5001-021）共同资助
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