自然资源学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 1430-1440.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.08.015

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国燃料乙醇的生产潜力与发展对策研究

付畅, 吴方卫   

  1. 上海财经大学财经研究所, 上海 200433
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-05 修回日期:2013-12-13 出版日期:2014-08-20 发布日期:2014-08-20
  • 作者简介:付畅(1983-),男,博士研究生,研究方向为农业经济理论、能源经济政策。E-mail:fuchang1983@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科基金项目“我国发展液态生物质燃料的社会成本收益分析研究”(11BJY062);上海财经大学研究生创新基金项目“能源安全背景下我国液态生物质燃料的产能潜力优化研究”(CXJJ-2011-353)

The Estimation of Producing Potential of Fuel Ethanol and Its Developing Strategy in China

FU Chang, WU Fang-wei   

  1. Institution of Finance & Economics in Shanghai University of Finance & Economics, Shanghai 200433, China
  • Received:2013-09-05 Revised:2013-12-13 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-20

摘要:

论文测算了我国能源作物和农林废弃物等原料的燃料乙醇转化潜力,发现2015—2030年我国燃料乙醇的理论生产能力将从6 364×104 t 增长到1.18×108 t,可行的产量水平将在1 387.9×104 t 以上。如果能实现这一产量,将在很大程度上缓解我国的石油供求矛盾。今后提高燃料乙醇生产能力的可行策略主要有以下方面:加强边际土地资源评估和开发,促进能源作物的规模化利用,通过利益引导加强秸秆能源化利用,延长林木采伐加工产业链,在农村地区发展沼气等新型能源替代薪柴。

关键词: 燃料乙醇, 生产潜力, 发展策略

Abstract:

As a developing country with the highest economic growth rate and the largest population in the world, China's petroleum security situation is far from optimistic at present, and exploiting biofuel such as fuel ethanol to replenish the shortage of petroleum supply is rather urgent. The current production scale of fuel ethanol in China is comparatively low, but has plenty of feedstock to produce fuel ethanol, so it is necessary to evaluate the future producing potential of fuel ethanol thoroughly from all feasible sorts of feedstock in China. According to the technical economic parameters and restriction factors of feasible sorts of feedstock such as energy crops and farming and forest residue, an estimation of ethanol producing potential in the future of China is made in this thesis. And the result shows that the ethanol production potential will rise from 63.64×106 to 118×106 t between 2015 and 2030, and the feasible production capacity can exceed 13.88×106 t, which will sharply remit the petroleum gap between supply and demand if this capacity is realized. Major feasible tactics to increase the production of ethanol in future is as follows: strengthening the evaluation and exploitation of marginal land; promoting large- scale use of energy crops; increasing energy transforming of crop stalk by benefit drive; prolong the industrial chain of forest cutting and process; and using new energy such as methane substitute for fuel wood in rural area.

Key words: fuel ethanol, developing strategy, producing potential

中图分类号: 

  • F426.2