自然资源学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 931-943.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.06.005

• 资源安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价

潘佩佩1,2,3, 杨桂山1,3, 苏伟忠1,3, 张健1,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    3. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 南京 210008
  • 收稿日期:2012-05-28 修回日期:2012-11-08 出版日期:2013-06-20 发布日期:2013-06-20
  • 作者简介:潘佩佩(1986- ),女,河南开封人,博士研究生,主要从事土地利用与生态环境效应及流域综合管理研究。E-mail:panpeipei626@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41030745,41171429)。

Spatio-temporal Structure Variation of Grain Production and the Evaluation of Grain Security in Taihu Lake Basin

PAN Pei-pei1,2,3, YANG Gui-shan1,3, SU Wei-zhong1,3, ZHANG Jian1,3   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
  • Received:2012-05-28 Revised:2012-11-08 Online:2013-06-20 Published:2013-06-20

摘要:

太湖流域既是中国传统粮食高产区又是当前经济发展的前沿阵地。论文从宏观视角探讨了该区1985—2010年27个县域粮食生产时空变化格局及粮食安全水平,结果表明:时间演化上该区粮食产量不稳定,但总体呈下降趋势,历经波动发展—急剧减少—稳步增长三阶段;空间差异亦较显著,除西北4个县域,其余地区粮食产量均有不同程度下降,粮食生产重心逐渐由中部向西北偏移,县域粮食生产相对优势弱化,整体粮食生产能力降低;粮食总产变异系数和70%以上年份波动系数超全国平均水平,粮食安全风险大;粮食不安全县域增多,2010年59%的县域粮食不安全。未来该区仍受到耕地数量减少和质量退化威胁,完善耕地保护政策并提出保障粮食安全的区域差别化措施具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 粮食生产, 粮食安全, 太湖流域

Abstract:

Taihu Lake Basin is China's traditional food producing area with high grain yield and the forefront of China's economic development. With the gradual population increase and rapid urbanization development, the demand for food is increasing rapidly while cropland resources are fast dwindling. Therefore, the supply and demand conflict of food keeps intensifying. From a macro perspective, this paper discusses the temporal and spatial patterns of grain production changes and food security level of 27 county seats in Taihu Lake Basin from 1985 to 2010. The results are as follows: Firstly, the grain production showed instability and a tendency to decline, and it can be divided into three stages which are fluctuant development-sharp drop-stead growth. Secondly, it also showed significant regional differences. The analysis of different regions reveals the reality that all county seats have different degrees of decline other than the four counties in the northwest, especially Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Hangzhou. Then, the gravity centers of grain production appear the tendency moving from central area to northwest area and relative advantages of food production gradually blurred. On the whole, it presented a decline in the grain production. Finally, based on food security assessment, the fluctuations coefficient of more than 70% of the years and the total grain yield variation are above the national average level, so there will be a high-risk of food security. It is illustrated that the food insecurity counties expand from 4 to 16 and 59% has been a serious food deficit. In the future, the study area is still threatened by the decrease in the quantity and the degradation of the quality of cultivated land. In view of the analysis results, countermeasures for reducing cropland pressure and guaranteeing the balance of food supply were proposed, and it is of great significance to perfect the protection policy of cultivated land and grain production and bring forward some research measures for ensuring food security according to the actual situation of different regions.

Key words: grain production, food security, Taihu Lake Basin

中图分类号: 

  • F326.11