自然资源学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (11): 1918-1930.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.11.011

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于中亚气候数据的开都河流域历史气候资料重建

李雪梅1,2,3, 李兰海1,3, 白磊1,2,3, 张飞云1,2,3, 尚明1,2,3, 王喜喜1   

  1. 1. 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 中国科学院 新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    3. 新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室, 中国科学院 新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:2011-08-09 修回日期:2012-04-13 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2012-11-20
  • 作者简介:李雪梅(1983-),女,山东菏泽人,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化和水文水资源研究。E-mail:shuimingren@163.comE-mail:lilh@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划"气候变化对西北干旱区水循环影响机理与水资源安全研究"(2010CB951002);国家自然科学基金项目"塔河干流生态水文过程及其对气候波动的多尺度效应"(40871027);新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室开放性课题(XJYS0907-2011-04)。

Reconstruction of Climatic Data in the Kaidu River Basin Based on Climatic Data of Central Asia

LI Xue-mei1,2,3, LI Lan-hai1,3, BAI Lei1,2,3, ZHANG Fei-yun1,2,3, SHANG Ming1,2,3, WANG Xi-xi1   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China, ;
    3. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:2011-08-09 Revised:2012-04-13 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2012-11-20

摘要:

20世纪被认为可能是近千年中气候最暖的时期,但由于20世纪前50余年西北干旱区没有或少有实测气候资料,因此该区域20世纪气候变化评估存在很大的不确定性。重建这一时期气候资料有助于提高20世纪干旱区气候变化评估可靠性。论文应用Delta方法和典型相关分析(CCA)方法,结合1961-1990年开都河流域以及中亚3个气象站点1901-1990年逐月气温和降水资料重建开都河流域1901-1960年气候资料,并分析比较两种方法的精度和适用性。研究结果表明:Delta方法重建的各气象站逐月气温整体上优于CCA方法;CCA方法重建的降水整体上优于Delta方法。Delta方法重建的1901-1960年逐月气温序列不同年份之间变化幅度大,CCA方法重建的气温序列相对比较平缓。两种方法重建的降水序列中均表现出各个年份年内分布差异大的特征。

关键词: 气候变化, 历史重建, Delta方法, 典型相关分析, 开都河流域

Abstract:

The 20th century was probably believed as the warmest period during the last one thousand years. However, the lack of observed climatic data during the first half of the 20th century in China, especially in the arid land of Northwest China led to great uncertainty in climate change assessment of the 20th century. Reconstruction of climatic data for the first half of the 20th century could improve the reliability of climate change assessment of the 20th century. Choosing the observed monthly temperature and precipitation of three meteorological stations from Central Asia during the 20th century and the observed monthly temperature and precipitation of four meteorological stations from Kaidu River Basin during 1961-1990, this paper reconstructed the monthly temperature and precipitation during 1901-1960 in Kaidu River Basin using Delta and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) methods and analyzed the performance of reconstruction and applicability of those two methods. The results showed that: the performance of reconstructed monthly temperature using Delta method was better than that using CCA method, while the performance of reconstructed monthly precipitation using CCA method was better than that using Delta method. The inter-annual variation of monthly temperature time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by Delta method was large. It was smooth and steady of monthly temperature time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by CCA method. The inter-annual variation was large for monthly precipitation time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by both Delta and CCA methods.

Key words: climate change, reconstruction, Delta method, CCA method, Kaidu River Basin

中图分类号: 

  • P467