论文在分析我国21世纪以来能源消费格局,尤其是高能耗产业能源消费的同时,比较各主要高耗能产业、 单位产品能耗与国际先进水平能耗的差距,针对高耗能产业的差距和主要问题,探讨了我国主要高耗能产业的技术节能减排潜力,以及通过高耗能产业的技术节能减排,在2020年全国实现单位GDP的CO₂排放降低40%~45%总目标中工业技术节能减排的贡献率和贡献规模。预计到2020年,通过煤电、 钢铁、 有色金属、 建材、 石化、 化工、 煤炭采选、 油气采选等主要高耗能产业的技术进步,所能实现的工业技术节能潜力为51 560×10⁴~52 000×10⁴ tec,相应减少CO₂的减排总规模为125 800×10⁴~126 880×10⁴ t,在整个单位GDP节能减排至2020年降低40%~45%的目标中,工业技术节能减排的贡献率大约占15.5%~16.5%,将不能承担起实现目标的主要责任。此外,针对我国工业技术节能减排的潜力进一步扩大,就未来主要的工业技术节能减排路径进行了讨论。

This paper analyses the energy predication and consumption patterns since the 21st century in China, especially in the energy consumption of the energy-intensive industries. Meanwhile, it compares the gap between China’s per unit product energy consumption of the relatively energy-intensive industries with the international advanced level. To the gap and major problems, it probes into China’s potential of the energy-intensive industries in energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Through energy-saving and carbon dioxide emissions of the energy-intensive industries, in the national total targets that reduce 40% to 45% of carbon dioxide of per unit GDP in 2020, it probes into the contribution rate and the contribution scale of the energy saving industrial technology of the relatively energy-intensive industries. Through technological progress of the coal, the iron and steel, the non-ferrous metals, the building materials, the petrochemical, the chemical, the coal mining, the oil and gas mining and other major energy-intensive industries, it is forecasted that the energy-saving potential of industrial technology would realize 51560×10⁴-52000×10⁴ tec and would reduce carbon dioxide by a total size of 125800×10⁴-126880×10⁴ t. Carbon dioxide emissions in the entire unit of GDP would decrease by 40% to 45% of the national target in 2020, the energy saving and carbon emission of industrial technology accounts for the contribution rate of 15.5%-16.5%, and will not be able to assume primary responsibility for achieving national target. In addition, China’s industrial technology for energy saving potential and carbon emission reduction for further expansion, the future path of the main energy saving was discussed. Included the steady progress of the CCS projects(Carbon Capture and Storage)in the energy-intensive industries, backward technology and equipment and new material to speed up the elimination industry to achieve economies of scale enterprise development, strong industry association to promote industrial parks and guide the development of circular economy, strengthen the establishment of cleaner production organization and promote comprehensive utilization of resources.