基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响

孔 兰, 陈晓宏, 杜 建, 陈栋为

自然资源学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (7) : 1097-1104.

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自然资源学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (7) : 1097-1104. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.07.005
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基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响

  • 孔 兰1,2, 陈晓宏1,2, 杜 建1,2, 陈栋为1,2
作者信息 +

Impact of Sea-level Rise on Salt Water Intrusion Based on Mathematical Model

  • KONG Lan1,2, CHEN Xiao-hong1,2, DU Jian1,2, CHEN Dong-wei1,2
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摘要

气候变化导致的海平面上升对沿海地区构成极大的威胁,海平面上升已经成为全球重要的环境问题,受到社会各界的高度重视。研究建立了一维动态潮流-含氯度数学模型,计算了海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响,结果显示:250 mg/L的咸度线随着上游来水频率的增大,咸潮上溯距离明显增大;一定上游来水条件下,随着海平面的上升,咸潮上溯界线向上游方向移动显著。并详细计算了代表口门在海平面上升10 cm、30 cm和60 cm的情况下,咸潮界线的具体上移距离,以期给三角洲地区城市供水、农业灌溉引水等提供理论指导,减轻海平面上升危害,以确保21世纪中国沿海地区资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。

Abstract

Sea-level rise caused by climate change poses a great threat on coastal areas. Sea-level rising has become an important global environmental issue that attracts lots of community’s attention. In this study, one-dimensional dynamic tidal current and chlorinate model is established, which can be used to calculate the impact of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion. The results show that the contour of 250 mg/L moves more distance to the upper reaches with the increase of runoff frequency; under certain upstream runoff conditions, the contour of 250 mg/L moves to the upper reaches significantly as sea-level rises. The distance of salt water intrusion from estuaries was calculated exactly in case the sea-level rises 10 cm,30 cm and 60 cm in the future. In delta region, the authors expect that the study can provide theoretical guidance to urban water supply, agricultural irrigation and so on so as to mitigate sea-level rising hazards and to ensure China’s coastal resources, environmental, economic and social sustainable development in the 21st century.

关键词

海平面上升 / 三角洲 / 数学模型 / 咸潮上溯

Key words

sea-level rise / delta / mathematical model / salt water intrusion

引用本文

导出引用
孔 兰, 陈晓宏, 杜 建, 陈栋为. 基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(7): 1097-1104 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.07.005
KONG Lan, CHEN Xiao-hong, DU Jian, CHEN Dong-wei. Impact of Sea-level Rise on Salt Water Intrusion Based on Mathematical Model[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2010, 25(7): 1097-1104 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.07.005

参考文献

[1] Cazenave A, Nerem R S. Present-day sea level change: Observation and causes [J]. Reviews Geophysics, 2004, 42 (3): 1-20. [2] Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al. Climate Change 2007: Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 AR4 [M] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007: 1-18. [3] Douglas B C. Global sea level rise [J]. Jour. Geophysical Research, 1991, 96: 6981-6992. [4] 任美锷. 海平面上升对中国三角洲地区的影响及对策. 中国科学院院士咨询报告. 北京: 科学出版社, 1994: 1-353. [5] Yu Y F, Yu Y X, Zuo J C, et al. Effect of sea level variation on tidal characteristic values for the East China Sea [J]. China Ocean Engineering, 2003, 17(3): 369-382. [6] 颜梅. 全球海平面变化的热力学机制研究. 青岛: 中国海洋大学, 2008. [7] F-Press. What I would advise a head of state about global change [J]. Earth Quest, 1989, 3(2): 1-2. [8] 马瑞. 东江三角洲盐水入侵对河道下切的响应规律研究. 广州: 中山大学, 2008. [9] 闻平. 珠江三角洲咸潮入侵机理研究. 广州: 中山大学, 2006. [10] 黄镇国. 广东海平面变化及其影响与对策[M]. 广州: 广东科技出版社, 2000: 151-160. [11] 李素琼, 赦大光. 海平面上升与珠江口咸潮变化[J]. 人民珠江, 2000(6): 42-44.

基金

国家自然科学基金重点项目(50839005);中山大学优秀研究生导师逸仙创新人才培养计划(2010);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428405)。

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