在大量的实测资料基础上，通过模拟计算得到了在当前气候条件下、水肥适宜的青藏高原冬小麦干物质累积动态曲线。模拟计算表明：青藏高原夏季气候温凉，小麦生育期延长，因而干物质累积时间长，高原小麦高产主要以干物质累积时间长取胜，有利的夏季温度条件是高原小麦高产的最主要原因；青藏高原冬小麦干物质潜在产量可达３２ｔ／ｈm₂·ａ，籽粒潜在产量可达１４４ｔ／ｈm₂·ａ，为平原的１４５倍。

Based on measurement data of winter wheat field in the Tibet Plateau, the dynamic change curves of dry matter production of winter wheat under present climatic as well as suitable soil water and fertilizer conditions are obtained by means of simulation models. The results show that on the Tibet Plateau, the growing period of wheat is prolonged because the climate in summer is cool. And the high yield of wheat in Tibet Plateau is due to the long accumulating time of dry matter. The advantageous temperature in summer is the key reason of the high yield of the winter wheat in the Tibet Plateau. The potential yield of the dry matter of the winter wheat in the Tibet Plateau is 32t/ha.The potential yield of the grain is 14 4t/ha and 1 45 times as much as that on the plain.