中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调机制及优化路径

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210313

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于城乡统筹和区域协调发展的视角,构建了新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调发展评价指标体系,采用全局主成分分析、耦合协调度模型对2007—2017年中部地区两化的耦合协调机制及时空演化特征进行了系统研究。结果表明：（1）研究期间各省份新型城镇化与农业现代化以一定幅度的波动持续增长,但双向交互下的综合效益总体偏低,经济发展是驱动二者水平提升的主要动力;（2）中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化表现为高度的耦合相关,2007—2017年两系统经历了“轻度失调—初级协调”的转变,耦合协调关系总体趋于不断优化,协调水平在空间格局上呈现“南高北低”的分异特征;（3）中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化的耦合协调存在一定短板,相比之下新型城镇化的发展稍显滞后。2012年以来,在宏观政策的调控和引导下两系统发展的不平衡趋势逐步减弱,多数省份已先后实现不同协调等级的同步发展。掌握新型城镇化与农业现代化的耦合协调特征和时空演化趋势,对新时期中部地区崛起和现代化建设目标的实现有着积极的现实意义。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 农业现代化, 全局主成分, 耦合协调, 中部地区

Abstract:

Based on the perspective of urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development, a new evaluation index system for the coupling and development of urbanization and agricultural modernization was constructed. The coupling and coordination relationship between the two regions in the central region of China from 2007 to 2017 was analyzed by using the global principal component analysis and the coupling coordination degree model. The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics were systematically studied. The results show that: (1) During the research period, the new urbanization and agricultural modernization of the provinces continued to grow with a certain degree of fluctuation, but the overall benefits under the two-way interaction were generally low, and economic development was the main force driving the improvement of the two levels. (2) The new urbanization and agricultural modernization in the central region were highly coupled. In 2007-2017, the two systems experienced a transition from "mild imbalance-primary coordination". The coupling and coordination relationship tended to be continuously optimized, and the coordination level presented a spatial pattern of "high in the south and low in the north". (3) The coupling and coordination of new urbanization and agricultural modernization in the central region had some shortcomings. In contrast, the development of new urbanization was slightly lagging behind. Since 2012, under the regulation and guidance of macroeconomic policies, the imbalance of the development of the two systems has gradually weakened, and most provinces have successively achieved simultaneous development at different coordination levels. Mastering the coupling and coordination characteristics of new urbanization and agricultural modernization and the spatio-temporal evolution trend have positive and practical significance for the realization of the rise of the central region and the goal of modernization in the New Era.

Key words: new urbanization, agricultural modernization, global principal component, coupling coordination, central region

蒋正云, 胡艳. 中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调机制及优化路径[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 702-721.

JIANG Zheng-yun, HU Yan. Coupling and coordination between new urbanization and agricultural modernization in Central China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 702-721.

图/表 13

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

表4

中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化全局主成分分析结果"

指标	新型城镇化					指标	农业现代化
指标	F₁	F₂	F₃	F₄	F₅	指标	F₁	F₂	F₃	F₄	F₅
U₁	-0.086	0.100	0.241	-0.104	-0.027	A₁	0.175	0.016	0.175	-0.085	0.070
U₂	-0.029	-0.019	-0.183	0.030	0.529	A₂	0.027	-0.067	-0.056	-0.005	0.413
U₃	0.059	0.093	-0.221	0.130	-0.246	A₃	0.200	-0.033	0.010	0.052	-0.023
U₄	0.086	0.075	0.073	-0.058	-0.031	A₄	-0.048	0.135	-0.013	0.309	0.211
U₅	-0.138	0.395	-0.110	-0.055	0.035	A₅	0.047	0.363	0.039	0.007	0.025
U₆	0.010	-0.245	0.033	0.040	0.058	A₆	-0.045	-0.067	-0.121	0.414	0.061
U₇	0.271	-0.106	-0.001	-0.134	-0.025	A₇	0.095	0.068	-0.211	0.059	-0.357
U₈	0.032	-0.020	0.289	-0.068	-0.142	A₈	-0.115	0.051	0.286	-0.082	-0.010
U₉	0.229	-0.023	-0.091	-0.059	0.027	A₉	0.193	0.072	-0.046	0.015	0.049
U₁₀	0.193	-0.028	-0.059	-0.007	0.011	A₁₀	-0.156	0.163	-0.190	0.006	-0.034
U₁₁	0.022	0.125	-0.025	0.057	0.011	A₁₁	0.207	0.005	0.010	-0.142	-0.104
U₁₂	0.113	-0.236	0.243	-0.032	0.017	A₁₂	0.046	0.210	0.172	0.210	-0.056
U₁₃	-0.010	0.249	0.090	-0.164	-0.046	A₁₃	-0.034	-0.226	0.180	-0.074	-0.347
U₁₄	-0.048	-0.047	0.180	0.114	-0.099	A₁₄	-0.062	0.080	-0.453	0.091	0.071
U₁₅	-0.112	-0.037	0.255	0.097	-0.065	A₁₅	-0.019	-0.013	0.077	-0.395	0.228
U₁₆	-0.078	-0.091	-0.113	0.405	0.072	A₁₆	0.066	-0.360	0.100	-0.028	0.008
U₁₇	-0.029	-0.082	-0.039	0.329	0.005	—	—	—	—	—	—
U₁₈	0.077	0.032	-0.110	0.167	-0.010	—	—	—	—	—	—
U₁₉	0.073	0.154	-0.131	0.049	-0.008	—	—	—	—	—	—
U₂₀	0.141	-0.095	0.012	0.121	-0.063	—	—	—	—	—	—
U₂₁	0.053	0.020	0.123	0.046	-0.112	—	—	—	—	—	—
U₂₂	-0.034	-0.006	-0.120	0.044	0.440	—	—	—	—	—	—
特征值	5.467	3.884	3.721	3.503	2.390	特征值	4.760	2.484	2.288	2.192	1.860
贡献率	24.850	17.653	16.914	15.924	10.864	贡献率	29.749	15.528	14.298	13.703	11.625
累积贡献率	24.850	42.502	59.416	75.339	86.203	累积贡献率	29.749	45.277	59.574	73.277	84.902

表4

图3

表5

图4

表6

图5

表7

表8

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系统层	准则层	指标层	属性	系统层	准则层	指标层	属性
新型城镇化（NU）	人口城镇化	城镇人口占比（U₁）	+	农业现代化（AM）	农业经济现代化
新型城镇化（NU）		城镇人口密度（U₂）	+	农业现代化（AM）	农业经济现代化
		非农产业从业人员占比（U₃）	+			劳均粮食产量（A₁）	+
						耕地有效灌溉率（A₂）	+
	经济城镇化	人均GDP（U₄）	+			人均财政支农支出（A₃）	+
		非农产业产值占比（U₅）	+			单位耕地面积机械总动力（A₄）	+
		地区GDP增速（U₆）	+			单位耕地面积粮食生产量（A₅）	+
	空间城镇化	建成区面积（U₇）	+			单位耕地面积有效化肥施用量（A₆）	+
		人均城市道路面积（U₈）	+
		地均GDP（U₉）	+		农业社会现代化
		地均固定资产投资额（U₁₀）	+			劳动力受教育水平（A₇）	+
	社会城镇化	人均教育经费（U₁₁）	+			农村恩格尔系数（A₈）	-
		每万人拥有公交车数（U₁₂）	+			农村居民人均纯收入（A₉）	+
		每千人拥有卫生技术人员数（U₁₃）	+			第一产业从业人员占比（A₁₀）	-
		自来水普及率（U₁₄）	+			人均社会消费品零售总额（A₁₁）	+
		天燃气普及率（U₁₅）	+
	生态城镇化	建成区绿化覆盖率（U₁₆）	+		农业生态现代化
		人均公园绿地面积（U₁₇）	+			森林覆盖率（A₁₂）	+
		生活垃圾无害化处理率（U₁₈）	+			农作物成灾率（A₁₃）	-
		废污水集中处理率（U₁₉）	+			单位耕地面积农药施用量（A₁₄）	-
	城乡一体化	农村—城镇居民人均可支配收入比（U₂₀）	+			农业废弃物综合利用率（A₁₅）	+
		农村—城镇居民人均消费水平比（U₂₁）	+			环境治理投资占GDP占比（A₁₆）	+
		新型合作医疗参保率（U₂₂）	+

协调度区间	协调等级	协调类型
[0.00, 0.10)	极度失调（Ⅰ）	失调衰退型 [0.00, 0.40）
[0.10, 0.20)	严重失调（Ⅱ）
[0.20, 0.30)	中度失调（Ⅲ）
[0.30, 0.40)	轻度失调（Ⅳ）
[0.40, 0.50)	濒临失调（Ⅴ）	过渡型 [0.40, 0.60）
[0.50, 0.60)	勉强协调（Ⅵ）
[0.60, 0.70)	初级协调（Ⅶ）	耦合协调型 [0.60, 1.00]
[0.70, 0.80)	中级协调（Ⅷ）
[0.80, 0.90)	良性协调（Ⅸ）
[0.90, 1.00]	优质协调（X）

研究样本	KMO检验	Bartlett球形检验
研究样本	KMO检验	卡方值	P值
新型城镇化	0.751	2340.763	0.000
农业现代化	0.679	1254.580	0.000

年份	地区
年份	山西	河南	安徽	江西	湖北	湖南	地区均值
2007	0.060	0.070	0.062	0.085	0.119	0.059	0.076
2008	0.117	0.104	0.109	0.135	0.161	0.096	0.120
2009	0.153	0.139	0.133	0.164	0.184	0.122	0.149
2010	0.169	0.153	0.161	0.185	0.197	0.149	0.169
2011	0.205	0.191	0.214	0.229	0.237	0.184	0.210
2012	0.240	0.227	0.251	0.256	0.273	0.220	0.244
2013	0.287	0.277	0.320	0.294	0.338	0.263	0.296
2014	0.309	0.320	0.358	0.313	0.376	0.301	0.330
2015	0.321	0.347	0.376	0.333	0.400	0.330	0.351
2016	0.341	0.380	0.401	0.357	0.430	0.357	0.378
2017	0.382	0.489	0.450	0.448	0.492	0.422	0.447
均值	0.235	0.245	0.258	0.255	0.292	0.228	0.252
年均增速/%	22.230	22.071	23.123	18.900	15.587	22.554	20.744

年份	地区
年份	山西	河南	安徽	江西	湖北	湖南	地区均值
2007	0.133	0.194	0.254	0.422	0.291	0.284	0.263
2008	0.130	0.206	0.251	0.430	0.313	0.279	0.268
2009	0.128	0.232	0.284	0.418	0.296	0.258	0.269
2010	0.117	0.248	0.315	0.450	0.379	0.334	0.307
2011	0.174	0.274	0.333	0.427	0.386	0.321	0.319
2012	0.226	0.303	0.367	0.477	0.377	0.360	0.352
2013	0.283	0.329	0.392	0.517	0.424	0.394	0.390
2014	0.305	0.347	0.439	0.615	0.446	0.387	0.423
2015	0.328	0.355	0.466	0.648	0.497	0.413	0.451
2016	0.326	0.401	0.484	0.662	0.538	0.444	0.476
2017	0.461	0.412	0.492	0.682	0.537	0.444	0.504
均值	0.237	0.300	0.371	0.523	0.408	0.356	0.366
年均增速/%	14.716	7.864	6.909	5.116	6.669	5.034	7.718