基于网络数据的乡村旅游热点识别及成因分析——以江苏省为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201203

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于旅游网站数据,提出一种乡村旅游热点识别方法,以江苏省为例,运用趋势面、核密度、热点分析等方法探寻乡村旅游冷热格局及演变特征,并借助地理探测器揭示其时空演化的影响因素。结果表明：（1）江苏省乡村旅游热度的时间演化规律明显,年际变化呈“S”型演变轨迹;季节变化呈“三峰四谷”特征。（2）江苏省乡村旅游热度的空间结构在2009—2017年间经历了“单核—双核—三核”的演化过程,但其空间异质性依然显著,整体表现为“南高北低,东高西低”的差异特征。（3）影响因素在不同时段的影响强度各异,交通条件、服务能力一直是主导因素,经济水平对乡村旅游发展早期的热度提升有显著影响,资源禀赋的显著性趋于下降,生态环境和政府导向的影响力逐渐增强。基于网络数据的乡村旅游热点识别为乡村旅游定量研究提供了新的研究视角,对乡村旅游资源开发与区域合作具有重要的指导意义。

关键词: 大数据, 热点识别, 演化, 成因, 江苏省

Abstract:

Rural tourism has important practical significance for optimizing the rural industrial structure, and recovering the rural economy, especially for the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy. Thus, rural tourism is not only the focus of local government and tourism enterprises, but also a hot topic in domestic and international tourism research. At the same time, with the development and popularization of the Internet, travel websites, social software and other online platforms have become important tools to obtain travel information, make travel decisions, and share travel experiences. Tourism big data provides data sources and methodological support for rural tourism research. Based on data of tourism network, this paper puts forward a method for identifying rural tourism hotspots. Taking Jiangsu province as an example, this paper uses the methods of trend surface, nuclear density estimation and hot spot analysis to explore the cold and hot patterns of rural tourism, and reveals the influencing factors of the evolution with the help of geographic detectors. The results show that: (1) The annual and seasonal changes of rural tourism heat are obvious. The annual change presents s an "S" shaped evolution track, seasonal variation is characterized by "three peaks and four valleys", but the degree of seasonal influence on different types of rural tourist attractions is slightly different. (2) The spatial structure of rural tourism in Jiangsu province experienced the evolution of "mononuclear-dual-nuclear-trinuclear" in 2009-2017, but its heterogeneity is still significant, basically maintaining the overall characteristics of "high in the south and east regions, while low in the north and west regions". The hot spots are concentrated in southern Jiangsu and gradually evolve into cold spots in the north. The evolution of spatial structure shows a trend of "expanding from the west to the north". (3) There are obvious strength differences and time variations among the influencing factors. Transportation convenience and reception capacity have always been the main influencing factors. The economic development has a significant positive impact on the early development of rural tourism, and the influence of tourism resource tends to decline. The positive influence of ecological environment and government orientation on rural tourism is increasing. Hotspot identification based on network data provides a new perspective for quantitative research of rural tourism. In terms of practicability, it is helpful to clarify the evolution characteristics of the cold and hot patterns of rural tourism so as to provide important guiding significance for rural tourism resource development and regional cooperation.

Key words: big data, hotspot identification, evolution, cause, Jiangsu province

荣慧芳, 陶卓民. 基于网络数据的乡村旅游热点识别及成因分析——以江苏省为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(12): 2848-2861.

RONG Hui-fang, TAO Zhuo-min. Hotspot identification and cause analysis of rural tourism based on website data:Take Jiangsu province as an example[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(12): 2848-2861.

图/表 9

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

乡村旅游冷热格局演化的影响因素分析指标体系"

表征因子	因子解释	数据来源
人均可支配收入	人均可支配收入是决定居民收入和消费的基础,可从供需两个方面影响乡村旅游发展,用于表征经济发展水平对乡村旅游的影响	各县市统计年鉴
公路里程数	公路交通是乡村旅游的主要交通方式,直接影响乡村旅游景点的可进入性,本文选用公路里程数来衡量交通条件对乡村旅游的驱动作用	各县市统计年鉴
星级饭店数	星级饭店、旅行社是旅游服务接待能力的重要表征因子^[33],但考虑到乡村旅游以自助游为主,旅游社影响作用不大,故选用星级饭店数这一因子来表征	各县市国民经济与社会发展统计公报、统计年鉴
星级景点数	乡村旅游星级景点是乡村旅游发展的核心要素,代表了区域旅游资源的富集程度,是吸引游客的前提和基础。因此,星级景点数成为学者衡量旅游资源禀赋的常用表征因子^[34]	江苏省文化和旅游厅官方网站公布的星级景点评定文件
空气质量优劣率	空气质量已成为影响旅游需求和偏好的一大因素,考虑数据的可获取性,本文选取空气质量优良率来表征生态环境条件对乡村旅游热度的影响^[35]	数据来源于各县市环境质量公报及统计年鉴,如无直接统计,可由空气优良天数除以年天数（365）计算得到
旅游总收入占GDP的比例	政府部门往往通过资金投入发挥其政策导向作用,旅游投资比例是较为理想的表征因子,但大多县市并未将这一指标纳入官方统计,为此,学者多选取旅游总收入占GDP的比例来替代（该指标可反映出旅游业在县域经济中的地位,是政府政策导向作用的综合体现）^[36]	数据来源于各县市统计年鉴和国民经济与社会发展统计公报。若无旅游总收入直接统计值,则由旅游外汇收入乘以当年汇率再与国内旅游收入求和得到

表2

图6

表3

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网站	现实热度信息		潜在热度信息
携程网	游记数	景点点评数	游记评论数	游记浏览数
去哪儿网	游记数	游记评论数	游记点赞数	游记浏览数
途牛网	游记数	点评数	游记收藏数	游记浏览数
大众点评网	默认点评数	全部点评数	点赞数	回应数

年份	经济发展水平	交通便利程度	旅游资源禀赋	生态环境条件	接待服务能力	政府政策导向
2009	0.612^***	0.738^***	0.508^**	0.402	0.892^***	0.421
2013	0.671^***	0.781^***	0.623^***	0.512^**	0.827^***	0.522^**
2017	0.418	0.825^***	0.566^**	0.536^**	0.804^***	0.633^***