基于格点数据的中国1961—2016年≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温时空演变

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20200516

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了解气候变暖对农作物种植区域的影响,基于5日滑动平均、累积距平、MK检验、多元回归插值方法,选用格点数据对中国农业热量资源进行分析。结果表明：（1）≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温整体呈上升趋势,且≥5 ℃整体升幅更为显著,两者升幅均表现为南方地区最大,北方次之,青藏高原最小,秦巴山区积温呈现下降现象。（2）在空间分布上,≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温整体表现出自南向北随纬度更替变化的地带性分布和自东向西随海拔变化的阶梯状分布,东、中部地区受纬度影响明显,西部地区受海拔影响强于纬度。适宜喜凉作物种植的区域远大于喜温作物的适宜种植面积。（3）≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温均在1997年发生突变,突变后≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃各积温带界线呈现向北、向高海拔移动的趋势,积温整体升高。南方地区≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃积温增幅整体大于北方,青藏高原及高山山区增幅最小,秦岭地区积温增幅为负。（4）≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温初始日（结束日）整体呈提前（推迟）现象,且多数格点提前（推迟）日数在0~10 d以内,持续时间在突变后整体延长。青藏高原≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃积温初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）天数最大。

关键词: 热量资源, 多元回归插值, 中国, 有效积温, 突变

Abstract: In order to figure out the impact of climate warming on crop planting areas, this paper used grid data to analyze agricultural heat resources in China based on methods of Sliding Mean Temperature of Five Days, accumulated anomaly, Manner-Kendall test and multiple regression interpolation. The results showed that: (1) The effective accumulative temperatures (≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃) show an overall upward trend, and the accumulative temperature of ≥5 ℃ is more remarkable. The southern region has the highest inclination rate, followed by the northern region, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the smallest, while the cumulative temperatures of the Qinling-Daba mountains show a decreasing trend. (2) The effective accumulated temperatures (≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃) present a similar spatial distribution, namely, the accumulated temperature varied with latitude from south to north and varied with altitude from east to west. The eastern and central regions of China are obviously affected by latitude, while the western region is affected more by altitude than latitude. The area suitable for planting chimonophilous crop is larger than that suitable for thermophilic crop. (3) The effective accumulated temperatures of both ≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ mutated in 1997, and both of their boundaries show a tendency toward northward and high altitude. The cumulative temperature increment in the south is larger than that in the north. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and mountain areas with high altitude have the smallest increase, while cumulative temperature increment is negative in the Qinling Mountains. (4) The initial days (closing day) of the effective accumulated temperature (≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃) presented an overall phenomenon of advance (delay), and the number of advance (delay) days is mostly within 0-10 days. Both of their durations increased overall after mutation. The number of initial days (closing day) in advance (delay) is the largest in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: effective accumulative temperature, multiple regression interpolation, China, abrupt change, heat resources

李帅, 张勃, 马彬, 候启, 何航. 基于格点数据的中国1961—2016年≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温时空演变[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(5): 1216-1227.

LI Shuai, ZHANG Bo, MA Bin, HOU Qi, HE Hang. Spatiotemporal evolution of effective accumulated temperatures of ≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ based on grid data in China from 1961 to 2016[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(5): 1216-1227.

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