环境约束下的中国八大经济区出口结构优化模拟研究

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20160936

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自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10) : 1651-1663. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160936

资源经济

环境约束下的中国八大经济区出口结构优化模拟研究

唐志鹏^{1, 2}, 郑蕾^{1, 2, 3}, 李方一^{4, *}

作者信息 +

Study on Export Structure Optimization Simulation in China’s Eight Economic Regions under Environmental Constrains

TANG Zhi-peng^{1, 2}, ZHENG Lei^{1, 2, 3}, LI Fang-yi⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

论文基于2007—2010年中国30个省份区域间投入产出表数据,结合线性规划建立了多区域投入产出优化模型,研究了环境约束下中国八大经济区的出口结构优化。结果表明：2007—2010年需要提高服务业和农业的出口比重,同时降低煤炭开采和洗选业、造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业、金属冶炼及压延业和电力热力生产供应业的出口比重,通过以上结构调整达到最优出口结构,可以实现在不增加碳、工业二氧化硫和工业废水排放的基础上促使全国GDP分别提高6.84%和8.17%。东北区域、黄河中游区域、长江中游区域、大西南区域和大西北区域需要降低的出口部门较多,且多集中在高能耗高排放产业;东部沿海区域、南部沿海区域、北部沿海区域需要提高的出口部门较多,主要集中在制造业和服务业,2010年东部沿海区域、南部沿海区域和大西北区域的总体出口结构优化度比2007年有所提高。在八大经济区中,东部沿海区域和南部沿海区域由于区位优势,其出口结构整体优化度相对较高,而东北区域则最低。地理区位对于区域出口结构优化具有一定程度的影响。

Abstract

The issue of global change is getting the attention of the world. The carbon dioxide emissions produced by the fossil energy consumption is the main reason of global change. Driven by the export policy, China has become the biggest exporter and also the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world due to the large share of energy resources in the export structure. This larger share of energy resources in export structure severely restricts the sustainable development of China. The export structure with low emissions and high added value is required for regional sustainable development. As the implementation of carbon dioxide emissions reduction in each province, it should be noted that how to achieve the best goal in the whole nation through the regional structural adjustment. Most previous studies on export structure optimization focused only on national scale. In order to reflect the export structure optimization in different regions under the constrains of low carbon and less pollution, this paper constructed a multi-regional optimization model by combining linear programming with multi-regional input-output analysis, and the export structure optimizations in China’s eight economic regions in 2007 and 2010 were studied under the constrains of constant carbon and industrial pollution emissions. The results show that increasing the ratios of service and agriculture in the export structure will contribute to the environment, but it is contrary for the sector of coal mining, washing and processing, the sector of paper and products, printing and record medium reproduction, the sector of metals smelting and pressing, and the sector of electricity and heating power production and supply. It should focus on decreasing the ratios of sectors with high energy consumption and high pollution in northeast region, mid-Yellow River region, mid-Yangtze River region, southwest region and northwest region of the mainland of China, while it should focus on increasing the ratios of manufacturing and services in eastern coastal region, southern coastal region and northern soastal region. The degrees of export structure optimization in eastern coastal region, southern coastal region and northwest region were higher in 2010 than in 2007. The degrees of export structure optimization in the eastern coastal region and the southern coastal region were on top of the list. In contrast, the degree of export structure optimization in northeast region was at the bottom of the list.

导出引用

唐志鹏, 郑蕾, 李方一. 环境约束下的中国八大经济区出口结构优化模拟研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(10): 1651-1663 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20160936

TANG Zhi-peng, ZHENG Lei, LI Fang-yi. Study on Export Structure Optimization Simulation in China’s Eight Economic Regions under Environmental Constrains[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2017, 32(10): 1651-1663 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20160936

中图分类号： F062.2 X321

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